1月28日，唐纳德·特朗普警告一支“庞大的舰队”正驶向伊朗；在两周前对抗议者作出承诺之后，如今的报告称已确认超过6,300人死亡，而反对派的说法最高达30,000人——约高出5倍。现在他把威胁与伊朗的核计划、导弹生产和外交政策联系起来，并表示若拒绝达成协议，下一次打击将“远比”去年对核设施的突袭更严重。

这支力量的核心是据称已到达阿曼湾附近的“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰，搭载战斗机与电子战飞机，并随行三艘驱逐舰，携带对陆巡航导弹与导弹拦截系统。其他动向包括在卡塔尔乌代德基地部署新的防空系统以及向约旦派遣F-15E战机；与此同时，观察者注意到在乌代德的加油机激增、搜索与救援飞行以及侦察/中继飞机活动大幅增加，尽管公开层面几乎看不到通常伴随大规模“爱国者”或“萨德”部署的货运机激增迹象。

外交官列出三条打击路径：象征性打击（例如针对伊斯兰革命卫队）、需要许多天或数周且可能引发更广泛海湾战争的推翻政权式行动，或“斩首加协议”的混合方式。协议仍有可能，但伊朗记得特朗普在6月设定两周期限并在三天后发动轰炸，而其特使称任何协议都必须涵盖核计划、导弹库存与地区代理网络。

On January 28 Donald Trump warned that a “massive armada” was heading to Iran; after a promise to protesters two weeks earlier, reports now cite over 6,300 confirmed deaths and opposition claims as high as 30,000—about 5× higher. He now links threats to Iran’s nuclear programme, missile production and foreign policy, saying a refusal to deal would bring an attack “far worse” than last year’s raids on nuclear sites.

The core force is the USS Abraham Lincoln near the Gulf of Oman, with fighter jets and electronic-warfare aircraft, arriving with three destroyers carrying land-attack cruise missiles and missile-intercept systems. Other moves include new air-defence systems at al-Udeid in Qatar and F-15E jets to Jordan, while observers note surges in refuelling tankers, search-and-rescue flights, and surveillance/relay aircraft, despite little public evidence of the cargo-plane surge typical of large Patriot or THAAD deployments.

Diplomats outline three strike paths: symbolic attacks (eg against the IRGC), broader regime-toppling campaigns requiring many days or weeks and risking a wider Gulf war, or a hybrid decapitation-plus-deal approach. A deal remains possible, but Iran recalls that Trump set a two-week deadline in June and bombed three days later, and his envoy says any agreement must cover the nuclear programme, missile stockpile and regional proxies.

Source: Is America about to attack Iran?

Subtitle: Donald Trump says he is willing to negotiate. He might be bluffing

Dateline: 1月 29, 2026 07:19 上午