日本因劳动力短缺造成的机会损失估计每年达16万亿日元，占名义GDP的2.6%，为五年前的四倍，规模接近静冈县18万亿日元的年产出。非制造业损失最大，高达13万亿日元，比五年前增加10万亿日元。酒店与护理等行业因自动化落后而受冲击，一个130间客房的旅馆因人手较疫情前减少约40%而只能以50%入住率运营，导致预订量损失10–20%。2024财年因劳动力短缺破产的企业达309家，同比上涨约60%；在54万家样本企业中，2.5%落入高风险组，较五年前上升0.3个百分点，十年前属于此组的企业有四分之一已破产或关闭。

人手短缺迫使企业停摆或削减服务，例如Co-op Deli因难以补足假期人手而暂停配送5天，预计使年营收下降约2%。劳动供应不足还推迟资本开支：自2019年以来，大企业计划与实际投资存在约10%的缺口，2024财年未执行投资达1.9万亿日元。建设成本上升导致大型开发项目延后，如东京品川一栋建筑的拆除已延后至2036年，比原计划推迟三年。

政府正在探讨放宽工作时数限制（现行年度上限720小时）以暂时增加供给，但过度加班可能进一步削弱效率。软件投资不足加剧问题：食品住宿行业的人均软件资产仅约2万日元，医疗福祉仅约5万日元，远低于45万日元的企业平均水平。研究机构警告，若不改善生产率，劳动力短缺将持续拖累经济，使财政刺激与宽松政策难以奏效。

Japan’s labor shortage is causing annual opportunity losses of 16 trillion yen, equal to 2.6% of nominal GDP and four times the level five years ago, approaching Shizuoka Prefecture’s 18-trillion-yen output. Non-manufacturing accounts for 13 trillion yen of losses, up 10 trillion in five years. A 130-room inn with staffing down ~40% from pre-Covid operates at only 50% occupancy, losing 10–20% of meal-included bookings. In FY2024, 309 firms went bankrupt due to labor shortages, up ~60% year over year; 2.5% of 540,000 surveyed firms fall in the high-risk category, up 0.3 points in five years, and one-quarter of firms in this group a decade ago have since failed.

Shortages force service cuts, such as Co-op Deli’s five-day suspension that will lower annual revenue ~2%. Labor constraints also delay capital spending: major firms show a persistent ~10% gap between planned and actual investment since 2019, with 1.9 trillion yen unexecuted in FY2024. Rising construction costs are delaying redevelopment, including a major Tokyo building pushed to 2036, three years late.

The government is weighing easing the 720-hour annual overtime cap, though longer hours may reduce productivity. Software investment is extremely low in the hardest-hit sectors: only ~20,000 yen per worker in food/accommodation and ~50,000 yen in healthcare/welfare versus the 450,000-yen average. Analysts warn that without productivity gains, labor shortages will deepen economic contraction and blunt fiscal and monetary stimulus.