自2021年以来，中国房地产下行不断恶化，同时信息管控趋严：12月中旬当局着手清理发布负面住房内容的社交媒体账号，已关闭或停用数千个；11月两家领先的民间数据源据称停止发布月度住宅销量数据。国资背景的万科徘徊在违约边缘，而按建筑面积计的新房销量较2021年峰值下滑约50%。

新开工住宅建设下降近75%、房地产投资下降逾三分之一，但价格下跌被视为核心风险，因为银行、保险机构与国有资产管理公司持有大量与房地产相关的抵押品。估算显示，至2021年的十年涨幅中已有85%被抹去；相比之下，美国2007年住房崩盘仅抹去1996—2006年房价涨幅的47%。

官方监测依赖对70个大城市编制的加权房价指数，可能遗漏中小城市更剧烈的下跌，并低估上海等城市自2023年以来的跌幅，因此投资者转而依靠四个代表性城市的租售比等替代指标。该分析预测二手房价格还将再跌40%、低迷或持续至2030年，其拖延因素包括对新房折扣的限制、约3000万套待售库存房、约4900万套闲置投资房，以及新房成交占比从2022年的略高于一半降至2024年的26%（在2025年样本中仍在下滑）。

Since 2021, China’s property downturn has worsened while information has tightened: in mid-December authorities moved to shut social-media accounts posting negative housing content, closing or suspending thousands, and in November two leading private datasets reportedly stopped monthly home-sales releases. State-backed Vanke is near default, and new-home sales by floor space are down about 50% from the 2021 peak.

Fresh residential construction is down nearly 75% and property investment is down over one-third, but price declines are the key risk because banks, insurers, and state asset managers hold real-estate-linked collateral. One estimate says 85% of the decade-to-2021 price gains have been erased, versus 47% of the 1996–2006 increase wiped out in America’s 2007 crash.

Official monitoring relies on a weighted price index for 70 large cities, potentially missing sharper falls in smaller cities and undercounting declines in places like Shanghai since 2023, so investors lean on proxies such as price-to-rent ratios in four representative cities. That analysis projects another 40% drop in existing-home prices and a slump lasting to 2030, prolonged by limits on new-home discounts, roughly 30m unsold homes, an estimated 49m dormant investment properties, and the shift of new homes from just over half of transactions in 2022 to 26% in 2024 (still falling in 2025 samples).

Source: China’s property woes could last until 2030

Subtitle: Despite the best efforts of its social-media censors

Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 08:48 上午 | Shanghai