中国在电力扩张方面显著领先美国，2025年新增发电装机容量约470吉瓦，是美国新增64吉瓦的七倍。中国发电总装机容量在2013年超过美国，2024年已高出约150%，并计划在2024年至2030年间再提高50%。2025年中国发电量预计达10万亿千瓦时，约为美国的140%。其中约80%的新增装机来自可再生能源，而美国比例约为60%。中国还在建设27座核反应堆，预计2030年前在核电装机容量上超过美国。

AI数据中心对电力的巨大需求放大了这一差距。美国可能在2028年前面临44吉瓦的数据中心电力缺口。中国的数据中心用电占比在2024年为1.7%，预计到2030年将升至5.3%。在国家层面主导下，中国通过国有电力企业持续扩容，以低电价和建设速度优先于利润回报，从而避免能源成为AI发展的约束。

在AI竞争中，电力成本可能部分抵消芯片劣势。中国数据中心电价低至每千瓦时约3美分，仅为美国的三分之一。即便芯片性能落后，中国企业也可通过使用更多芯片和廉价电力获得可比算力。华为需要以更高芯片数量弥补性能差距，而DeepSeek和阿里巴巴已部署自研大模型。美国企业因此愈发担忧，中国正将能源产能作为到2030年主导AI竞争的基础。

China is rapidly widening its lead over the US in power generation, adding about 470 gigawatts of new capacity in 2025, roughly seven times the US increase of 64 gigawatts. China’s total generation capacity surpassed the US in 2013, stood about 150% higher in 2024, and is projected to rise another 50% by 2030. Power output in 2025 is estimated at 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, about 140% of US levels. Roughly 80% of new capacity comes from renewables, compared with 60% in the US, and China is building 27 nuclear reactors, aiming to overtake the US in nuclear capacity by 2030.

The surge matters because AI data centers consume vast amounts of electricity. The US could face a 44-gigawatt power shortfall for data centers by 2028. In China, data centers accounted for 1.7% of electricity consumption in 2024 and may reach 5.3% by 2030. Centralized control over state-owned utilities allows China to prioritize low prices and rapid capacity expansion, preventing energy supply from constraining AI growth.

Cheap power may partially offset China’s chip disadvantage. Electricity for Chinese data centers can cost about 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, roughly one-third of US prices. Even with less advanced chips, firms can deploy more hardware to reach comparable computing power. Huawei relies on higher chip counts, while companies such as DeepSeek and Alibaba have rolled out advanced in-house models. US firms increasingly worry that China is treating energy capacity as the foundation for leading AI by 2030.