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一套由中俄企业与空壳公司、海上转运与「黑船」组成的影子LNG运输网,正协助俄罗斯绕过2022年入侵乌克兰后的限制。例子是未被制裁的CCH Gas:2025年8月在新加坡附近徘徊数月后,由匆忙集结的印尼船员上船(约20人,其中一些失业超过一年),成为这套平行体系的一环。

彭博依船舶追踪等资料称:自2025年8月下旬起,中国南部北海港接收了20批以上受制裁俄罗斯LNG,交易价值至少5亿美元;当局被指将北海作为「唯一入口」以降低其他买家遭二级制裁风险。其辨识到的LNG暗船约15艘,虽远少于油品市场逾1000艘影子船,但已向北海输送逾100万吨(统计截至2025年12月23日);单船货值约2500万美元,较当时现货价折让约三分之一。

后勤与船舶条件构成瓶颈:2025年报废船平均船龄26年,全球约10%船龄超过20年,影子网常买老船;CCH Gas为18年船龄,约3000万美元成交,较报废价高约50%。北极LNG 2(2023年遭美制裁)设计年产约2000万吨,俄方原计划到本世纪末前将全国LNG产量增至每年1亿吨但在2025年12月被迫延后;冬季结冰时,仅1艘暗船能靠港,出口限每月2船、约为现有月产能13%。人力也吃紧:LNG船薪资通常较LPG高约20%、较货柜船高至40%;CCH Gas征才显示工程师月薪约4000–6000美元,船长约14500美元、轮机长约14000美元,且两周内就凑齐二十多名船员。

A China-linked “shadow” LNG fleet is helping Russia keep seaborne gas moving despite post‑2022 sanctions. One key ship, CCH Gas, was not blacklisted and sat off Singapore for months before a hastily assembled Indonesian crew of about 20 boarded in late August 2025, often without knowing the wider operation.

Ship-tracking data cited by Bloomberg indicate Beihai in southern China became the main entry point: since late August it has taken 20+ sanctioned LNG shipments worth at least $500 million. Bloomberg identified about 15 LNG “dark fleet” tankers—tiny versus 1,000+ oil shadow vessels—yet they delivered over 1 million metric tons to Beihai (data as of Dec. 23, 2025). Traders said cargoes sold for about $25 million each, roughly a one‑third discount to spot prices.

Constraints are logistical and human. Retired ships in 2025 averaged 26 years old and ~10% of the global fleet is over 20 years; CCH Gas is 18 years old and was sold for about $30 million, ~50% above scrap. Arctic LNG 2, sanctioned in 2023, is designed for ~20 million tons/year; Russia’s plan to reach 100 million tons/year by decade’s end was delayed in Dec. 2025. In winter, only one shadow vessel can reach the site, limiting exports to two cargoes per month—~13% of current monthly capacity. LNG staffing is scarce: pay is typically ~20% above LPG and up to 40% above container ships; CCH Gas postings showed ~$4k–$6k/month for junior engineers and ~$14k–$14.5k for top roles, with a full crew assembled in about two weeks.

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2025-12-31 (Wednesday) · 4cc4ab9cfe1a4c2f9577e2afec5a2891acf91fc9