Netflix 表示会维持 45-day 院线窗口，这比先前的说法更为缓和；然而 US 与 Europe 的产业团体认为，这项承诺并非具约束力的长期承诺，并已警告监管机构其可能损害大片供给。Warner Bros. 通常每年发行 15 to 20 部主要电影，其中约一半票房超过 $100 million (about $0.1 billion)，因此任何窗口压缩都可能影响大型院线最具商业重要性的片名中约 10% to 20%。另一个不确定性来自院线后策略：电影会先上 premium video on demand，还是直接进入订阅串流。
结构性压力仍然严峻：观影人次仍比疫情前低 30%，而票价上升了 10%；同时，与通膨挂钩的租金与劳动成本持续挤压利润率。行为转变，尤其是年轻观众对影院参与度较弱，即使内容供给更强，也增加了需求风险。院线商正透过 4D experiences 等高规格放映形式应对，并借由企业活动与替代内容排程来提高场馆变现；同时，进一步的院线整并也日益被视为对冲片商集中化的理性手段。若在院线供给广泛的一年仍表现不佳，片商可能加速 streaming-first 模式，并可能把长期院线市场锁定在更小规模。
Movie theaters are nearing a fragile recovery after the pandemic and Hollywood strikes, but a proposed Netflix acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is creating renewed uncertainty for exhibitors such as Cinemark, AMC, and Kinepolis. Analysts warn that if theatrical exclusivity windows are shortened, cinemas could lose critical high-margin weeks just as a stronger 2026 slate is expected to lift the US box office by 12% to about $9.7 billion. The timing is especially sensitive because major franchise releases are projected to generate the cash flow theaters need to stabilize operations.
Netflix has said it would keep a 45-day theatrical window, a more conciliatory stance than earlier rhetoric, yet industry groups in the US and Europe argue that the pledge is not a binding long-term commitment and have warned regulators about potential harm to blockbuster supply. Warner Bros. typically releases 15 to 20 major films annually, with roughly half exceeding $100 million (about $0.1 billion) in box office, so any window compression could affect around 10% to 20% of the most commercially important titles for large chains. Additional uncertainty comes from post-theatrical strategy: whether films go to premium video on demand first or directly into subscription streaming.
Structural pressures remain severe: attendance is still 30% below pre-pandemic levels while ticket prices are up 10%, and rising inflation-linked rent and labor costs continue to squeeze margins. Behavioral shifts, especially weaker cinema engagement among younger audiences, add demand risk even with stronger content supply. Exhibitors are responding through premium formats such as 4D experiences and by monetizing venues for corporate events and alternative programming, while further exhibitor consolidation is increasingly viewed as a rational counterweight to studio concentration. If a year with broad theatrical supply still underperforms, studios may accelerate streaming-first models, potentially locking in a smaller long-run theatrical market.