在美军撤离五年后，塔利班对阿富汗保持着牢固的控制，并在境内实现了严酷的秩序与稳定。然而，这种稳定伴随着极度严苛的压迫：女性被全面禁止进入大学、工作场所及接受中等教育，童婚合法化，严厉的道德警察则在街头滥施惩罚。塔利班最高领袖海巴图拉·阿洪扎达通过建立近卫军并牢牢掌控有利可图的矿业合同，巩固了强硬派的统治，致使温和派声音被系统性边缘化，令整个阿富汗社会陷入严重的孤立与绝望。

面对这一现实，西方国家此前实施的全面孤立政策几乎宣告失败，包括冻结海外资产和拒绝外交承认在内的举措并未动摇塔利班的意识形态立场。与此同时，俄罗斯已正式承认塔利班政权，中国、印度、土耳其及阿联酋等国也在矿产开采与双边贸易领域与喀布尔积极展开务实合作。此外，阿富汗与巴基斯坦等邻国的复杂互动加剧了地区地缘政治博弈，使得完全忽视阿富汗可能导致该国进一步倒向中俄的地缘轨道。

为了避免阿富汗民众承受更深的灾难并有效应对安全威胁，西方民主国家必须采取更为务实的接触策略。自2022年以来针对阿富汗的人道主义援助已削减约70%，但该国近半数人口依然亟需紧急救济，国际社会应当稳定基本援助以防止严重饥荒。同时，西方应推动针对性的制裁改革，避免使阿富汗彻底被全球金融体系隔离，并逐步建立务实的外交沟通渠道与使馆运作，以持续监控恐怖主义威胁并为阿富汗未来的渐进式内部改革保留可能空间。

Five years after the American withdrawal, the Taliban maintain firm control over Afghanistan, establishing a grim stability characterized by harsh social repression. Women and girls are comprehensively barred from secondary schools, universities, workplaces, and public life, while child marriage has been legalized under rigid fundamentalist governance. Taliban emir Haibatullah Akhundzada has consolidated hardline authority through loyal security forces and the seizure of lucrative mining contracts, effectively silencing internal moderate voices and deepening the country's isolation.

Western efforts to isolate the regime through sanctions and diplomatic freezes have largely failed to compel ideological changes among Taliban leaders. In contrast, geopolitical competitors have advanced their presence: Russia formally recognized the Taliban, while China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates engage actively on commerce and resource extraction. Total Western disengagement risks pushing Afghanistan further into Moscow and Beijing's strategic orbit while exacerbating regional security tensions.

Consequently, Western democracies must adopt a hard-nosed, pragmatic approach to engagement to mitigate humanitarian suffering and maintain security oversight. Donors should halt cuts to humanitarian assistance, which has plummeted by roughly 70% since 2022 despite nearly half the population requiring aid. Western nations should also pursue targeted sanctions reform to alleviate severe private sector paralysis and consider functional diplomatic representation to monitor counterterrorism threats and engage potential moderate elements.

Source: The Taliban are vile. Democracies must still engage with them

Subtitle: Five years after America’s exit, the Afghan regime is not going anywhere

Dateline: 8月 13, 2026 04:57 上午