文章中的证据显示，负担主要由国内而非国外承担：纽约联准会一项研究估计，90% 的关税成本由美国企业与消费者承受，与「外国出口商会吸收关税」的说法相矛盾。随著可负担性疑虑升高，民意也转差；Pew 民调中有 60% 反对提高关税，CFR-Morning Consult 调查约有三分之二认为关税让日常商品更难负担；Trump 的支持率也从就职时的 50.5% 降到本周的 42.1%（RealClearPolitics 平均）。同时，决策者指出通膨降温与高于预期的成长，作为经济损害并非普遍或立即发生的反证。
公司层级的调整看来并不均衡：中型企业相较大型跨国公司在供应链议价能力较弱，在面对关税急升时仍持续进口；不过，与中国相关的支付在美中缓和后、先前高达 145% 的关税部分下调，最多下降了 27%。在期中选举前，政治与制度性反弹正在扩大，包括众议院推动推翻对加拿大关税、部分共和党人倒戈，以及美国商会与小企业团体直接批评政策波动与利润微薄。核心统计样态是：强劲的关税征收与持续的逆差水准出现背离，加上成本传导集中与选民普遍不满，形成长期产业战略与短期家庭及企业压力之间的高风险取舍。
Donald Trump’s tariff regime has sharply raised import costs for US firms, with new JPMorgan Chase Institute data showing that tariff payments by midsize companies (annual revenue $100 million-$1 billion) tripled in the past year and reached up to 316% of pre-election levels in 2025. The policy goal is to reshore production and reduce a long-criticized trade gap, and tariff revenue has risen to $30 billion in January and $124 billion fiscal year-to-date, more than 300% above the comparable 2025 period. However, the full-year US trade deficit was still $901.5 billion in 2025, only 0.2% smaller year on year, indicating limited macro rebalancing so far.
Evidence in the article suggests the burden is mostly domestic rather than foreign: a New York Federal Reserve study estimated 90% of tariff costs were borne by US businesses and consumers, contradicting claims that foreign exporters would absorb the levies. Public opinion has deteriorated alongside affordability concerns, with 60% disapproving of tariff increases in a Pew poll and about two-thirds in a CFR-Morning Consult survey saying tariffs made everyday goods less affordable; Trump’s approval rating fell from 50.5% at inauguration to 42.1% this week (RealClearPolitics average). At the same time, policymakers point to cooling inflation and stronger-than-expected growth as counterevidence that economic damage is not universal or immediate.
Company-level adjustment appears uneven: midsize firms, which have less supply-chain bargaining power than large multinationals, continued importing while facing steep duty escalation, though payments tied to China fell by as much as 27% after tariffs that had reached 145% were partially reduced following US-China détente. Political and institutional pushback is expanding before the midterms, including House action to overturn Canada tariffs, defections by some Republicans, and direct criticism from the US Chamber of Commerce and small-business groups citing policy volatility and thin margins. The central statistical pattern is a divergence between strong tariff collections and persistent deficit levels, combined with concentrated cost pass-through and broad voter dissatisfaction, creating a high-stakes tradeoff between long-run industrial strategy and near-term household and business strain.