Fischer 的扭转计划目标是在未来 2 to 3 years 内实现每年 A$100 million（约 $71 million）的节省，同时削减库存以支撑定价与品牌声誉。Treasury 先前已指引中期 EBITS 可能约为 A$236 million，略高于其 December 区间上缘，但较一年前同期间下滑 40%。公司也计划限制会助长中国低价「平行进口」的出货，以保护 Penfolds；同时在如 US 等市场收紧经销商库存，即使这可能导致短期营收受挫。
市场表现与地缘政治凸显压力：Bloomberg 的酒类公司股票指数自 start of 2020 以来约下跌 6%，但 Treasury 的股价已暴跌约 2/3；且在过去一年中，其跌幅几乎是该指数 54 名成员中最近同业的 2x。中国风险在 2024 取消惩罚性关税后迅速转向，接著又有 2025 对奢华官方宴请的整顿；与此同时，US 长期拖累表现，包括 2025 约 $450 million 的减记，以及在 2026-02-09 当周宣布的一项涉及回购库存的和解。分析师认为接下来的 next 2 years 仍将「充满挑战」，并就股价是否已反映获利疲弱将持续存在分歧；即便如此，仍有新 5% 股东（Platin SARL）在 December 2025 浮现。
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. (TWE:AU) is preparing to report a sharp interim earnings drop on Monday following a year in which its stock fell the most since its 2011 listing, as new CEO Sam Fischer (appointed in October 2025) tries to reset strategy for a world drinking less wine. In a post-pandemic environment of lower alcohol consumption and high inflation, the company is pitching “less is more”: fewer, higher-end brands, tighter inventory management, and new product styles including zero- or low-alcohol options and lighter “refreshment” wines.
Fischer’s turnaround targets annual savings of A$100 million (about $71 million) over the next 2 to 3 years, alongside inventory cuts to support pricing and brand reputation. Treasury has already guided that interim EBITS will likely be around A$236 million, slightly above the top end of its December range but down 40% versus the same period a year earlier. The company also plans to restrict shipments that feed cut-price “parallel imports” in China to protect Penfolds, while also tightening distributor inventories in markets like the US even if that causes a short-term revenue hit.
Market performance and geopolitics underline the pressure: while a Bloomberg index of alcohol-company stocks is down roughly 6% since the start of 2020, Treasury’s shares have plunged by about 2/3, and over the past year it fell almost 2x as far as its nearest peer among the index’s 54 members. China risks shifted quickly after punitive tariffs were lifted in 2024, followed by a 2025 crackdown on lavish official banquets; meanwhile the US has been a chronic drag, including a roughly $450 million write-down in 2025 and a settlement announced in the week of 2026-02-09 that involves repurchasing inventory. Analysts see the next 2 years as “challenging,” with debate over whether the share price assumes weak earnings persist, even as a new 5% shareholder (Platin SARL) emerged in December 2025.