Strait of Hormuz 是全球能源与原料供应的关键瓶颈，承载约全球 1/5（20%）石油与液化天然气供应，以及全球海运硫磺贸易约 1/2（50%）。在实质封锁下，Iraq 已开始关停部分产量，油价自周末以来上升 14%，天然气价格升至自 2022 年 Russia 入侵 Ukraine 以来高点。这些比例与价格变化共同指向：航运收缩已由物流事件转化为跨商品市场的系统性冲击。
资料判读仍受电子战干扰：AIS 讯号遭压制、转发器关闭与 spoofing 增加，造成可见流量可能低估实际移动。为降低误差，追踪范围已扩至 Gulf of Oman、Arabian Sea 与 Red Sea，并以讯号历史辨识真实通行。即使如此，部分与 Iran 相关油轮可能在通过 Fujairah 后约 10 天（约 240 小时）才于 Strait of Malacca 重新开启讯号，意味短期统计仍有漏计风险，但「近乎停航」的趋势判断不变。
Bloomberg-compiled vessel tracking shows visible commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted: total transits fell from more than 100 ships on Friday to 7 on Monday and 3 on Tuesday, a drop of well over 95%. On Tuesday, only two bulk carriers and one small container ship were observed, and all were outbound from the Persian Gulf; inbound transits were zero. This time series, collapsing from triple digits to single digits and near zero, indicates an abrupt and persistent disruption after the conflict escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global choke point, handling about one-fifth (20%) of world oil and LNG supply and about one-half (50%) of global seaborne sulfur trade. Under effective closure conditions, Iraq has begun shutting in some production, oil prices have risen 14% since the weekend, and natural gas has reached its highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Together, these shares and price moves show that the shipping shock has already propagated from logistics into broad commodity-market stress.
Interpretation remains constrained by electronic warfare effects: AIS jamming, transponder shutdowns, and increased spoofing can cause visible traffic to undercount real movement. To reduce this bias, monitoring was expanded across the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea, with signal histories used to validate genuine transits. Even so, some Iran-linked tankers may keep signals off until the Strait of Malacca, about 10 days (about 240 hours) after passing Fujairah, so short-run counts may miss flows, but the near-standstill trend remains robust.