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九月九日,尼泊尔总理办公室所在的一座有117年历史的宫殿被纵火焚毁,警方枪杀19名大多为学生的手无寸铁抗议者后,全国几近无政府状态,直到九月十日军队介入才恢复秩序。两天后总统解散议会,任命以清廉著称的前最高法院院长苏希拉·卡尔基为看守总理,并将大选定于次年三月五日举行,以期在政权几近崩溃三个月后重建合法性。

自2015年现行宪法实施以来,尼泊尔已经出现七届政府(不含看守政府),主要由三位年逾七旬的老牌左翼领袖——79岁的德乌帕、71岁的普拉昌达和73岁的奥利——轮番执政。大火和镇压后掀起的青年抗议运动催生了新政党和新顾问,九月以来已有近84万名新选民登记,加重了老一代政客面对广泛愤怒和改革压力的政治风险。

腐败依然是选民首要关切,但更深层的焦虑来自前景黯淡的经济:尼泊尔的中位年龄仅26岁,却约有五分之一的年轻人失业,人均GDP刚刚超过1400美元,仅为邻国印度的一半左右。约220万尼泊尔人、在总人口2900万中占近十分之一生活在海外,大多为男性,形成对外就业的结构性依赖,同时也推动了要求在国内实现变革与机会的诉求。

On September 9th, mobs burned the 117‑year‑old Singha Durbar and other state buildings after police killed 19 mostly student protesters, plunging Nepal into near-anarchy until the army intervened on September 10th. Two days later the president dissolved parliament, appointed former chief justice Sushila Karki as interim prime minister, and scheduled elections for March 5th next year to restore legitimacy roughly three months after state collapse.

Since the 2015 constitution, Nepal has cycled through seven governments (excluding the interim one), dominated by three ageing leftist leaders—Sher Bahadur Deuba (79), Prachanda (71), and K.P. Sharma Oli (73)—who have alternated in coalition “musical chairs.” The September crackdown sparked a youth-led protest wave that is forming new parties and advisers, while nearly 840,000 new voters have joined the rolls since then, intensifying pressure on the old guard to face a more mobilised electorate.

Corruption remains voters’ top concern, but a deeper anxiety stems from bleak economic prospects in a young society with a median age of 26 and about one in five youths unemployed. GDP per person is just above $1,400—roughly half India’s—while some 2.2 million of Nepal’s 29 million people, nearly one in ten, live abroad, mostly men, underscoring structural dependence on foreign work even as many demand change and opportunity at home.

2025-11-29 (Saturday) · 7180ba49e264eb4a193e973971718971fd79c865