以色列分析人士认为，伊朗在经历了两年的屈辱以及今年6月灾难性的12天空战后，正站在十字路口。当前有两大观点争论，德黑兰究竟会优先通过突袭以色列来恢复威慑，还是专注于政权保全和重建被严重削弱的军力。

双方都认同伊朗很可能寻求报复，只是时间早晚不同，而且伊朗已经在尝试重新武装被以色列连续两年重创的黎巴嫩真主党。以军还担心伊朗会启用在伊拉克的代理人发射导弹，或策划针对以色列大使馆及其他象征性目标的恐怖袭击。

这些通过代理人实施的报复选项旨在使以色列更难直接还击，但分析人士普遍认为，只要攻击规模足够严重，以色列仍会迅速而严厉地直接打击伊朗本身。严厉报复的高概率，加上伊朗国内问题日益加重，正形成强大的威慑力，抑制其升级冲突的意愿。

Israeli analysts see Iran at a crossroads after a humiliating two-year period and a disastrous 12-day air war in June. Two main schools of thought debate whether Tehran will prioritize a surprise attack on Israel to restore deterrence or focus on regime survival and rebuilding its depleted military capabilities.

Both sides agree that Iran is likely to seek retribution, either sooner or later, and is already trying to rearm Hizbullah in Lebanon, which Israel has heavily battered over the past two years. The IDF also fears Iran could activate proxies in Iraq to launch missile attacks, or sponsor terrorist strikes on embassies and other symbolic Israeli targets abroad.

These proxy-based options are intended to complicate Israel’s direct response, but analysts widely judge that any serious attack would still trigger swift and severe reprisals aimed at Iran itself. That high probability of harsh retaliation, combined with Iran’s mounting domestic problems, constitutes a powerful deterrent against escalating the conflict.