自10月以来，中国已将南海一个昔日荒凉的沙洲改造成约600公顷的环礁。中国外交部发言人称该工程旨在改善岛上居住和工作条件并带动当地经济，但按中国自己数据，南海所有小岛的平民居民不超过2,000人（不含数千名军人），几乎全部是为支撑主权主张而派驻的。

安特洛普礁（Antelope Reef）现形态越来越像中国在2013年至2015年填海热潮中修建的三处机场之一美丽礁（Mischief Reef），而后者面积目前仅略大于安特洛普礁。最近的卫星照片显示，新形成的近似圆形泻湖内有一条可铺设2,700米跑道的长条区域；若疏浚持续到4月，安特洛普礁很快将成为南海最大的岛屿。

与过去大部分工程相比，绝大多数在2015年前已结束，近十年后再次回到南海也更显异常；更重要的是，安特洛普位于西沙群（Paracels），该区仅中国和越南主张，中国自1974年起已完全控制。过去四年越南在其控制的斯普拉特利群礁推进强度很大，智库专家称其今年某时可能在总填海面积上超越中国，因此中国在安特洛普继续大规模造陆可能是为保持领先。美国1月国防战略把“第一岛链”界定为日本—台湾—菲律宾—马来西亚，西沙大致落在该线之外，解释了其对这一动态的相对沉默。

Since October, China transformed a once desolate South China Sea sandbar into an approximately 600-hectare atoll. Although a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said the project is aimed at improving living and working conditions and growing the local economy, China’s own figures indicate fewer than 2,000 civilian residents across its South China Sea islets (excluding thousands of troops), implying settlement is mostly strategic rather than demographic.

Antelope Reef now resembles one of three airbases built by China during the 2013-2015 reclamation surge, when Mischief Reef was built and remains only slightly larger than Antelope today. Recent satellite images show a circular lagoon with a long strip that could take a 2,700-metre runway, and if dredging continues through April, Antelope is likely to become the largest island in the South China Sea.

The choice is notable because most activity had largely stopped by 2015, and yet China has resumed dredging after nearly a decade; in addition, Antelope is in the Paracels, claimed only by China and Vietnam, which China has controlled since 1974. Vietnam’s reclamation on its Spratly outposts over the last four years has been so extensive that experts said it might surpass China’s total reclaimed area this year, and Antelope appears designed to preserve Beijing’s lead while U.S. strategy, released in January, focuses on the first island chain of Japan–Taiwan–Philippines–Malaysia, effectively placing the Paracels outside its stated priority zone.

Source: China may be building a big new airbase in the South China Sea

Subtitle: But analysts are scratching their heads over the timing and locatio

Dateline: 4月 09, 2026 03:38 上午 | Singapore