摩根士丹利预计2026年中国股市进入盘整区间，主要因企业盈利质量与可持续性不确定、通缩压力延续至2026年、全球宏观前景偏弱。该行设定2026年12月目标：MSCI China为90点、恒生国企指数为9,700点、CSI 300为4,840点，较11月12日收盘点位分别仅有约3%、2%、4%的上行空间。当前CSI 300年初至今上涨约17%，为连续第二年录得涨幅，受科技发展预期推动，但估值已处于更高区间。

报告称2026年将是高回报后的“稳定期”，市场动能受限，指数上行依赖温和盈利增长与估值维持高位。MSCI China自今年3月摩根士丹利上调展望以来累计上涨逾10%，但该行认为结构性差异将主导表现。科技与互联网龙头因政策支持与技术竞争回暖被列为超配方向。

该行同时维持房地产、必需消费与能源的低配观点，原因在于盈利可见度弱、需求疲软或周期约束。整体判断显示2026年市场有正回报但幅度有限，行业轮动与个股筛选将成为超额收益主要来源。

Morgan Stanley expects Chinese equities to enter a consolidation phase in 2026 due to uncertain earnings quality and sustainability, deflationary pressures extending through 2026, and a weak global macro backdrop. Its December 2026 targets are: MSCI China at 90, HSCEI at 9,700, and CSI 300 at 4,840 — implying modest upsides of roughly 3%, 2%, and 4% from Nov. 12 levels. The CSI 300 is up about 17% year-to-date, its second year of gains, driven by technology optimism but now operating at elevated valuations.

The bank describes 2026 as a “stabilization year” after strong returns, with limited index upside supported only by moderate earnings growth and valuations holding at a higher regime. Since Morgan Stanley upgraded its China outlook in March, the MSCI China Index has risen more than 10%, yet the firm stresses that dispersion will intensify. High-quality Internet and technology leaders remain overweight positions.

It keeps underweights in real estate, consumer staples, and energy due to weak earnings visibility, subdued demand, or cyclical constraints. Overall, the outlook suggests positive but limited returns in 2026, with sector rotation and stock selection becoming the primary drivers of outperformance.