赖清德于2024年5月就任后，面对在立法院占优势的在野联盟（国民党＋民众党）持续杯葛，至2026年前夕朝野裂痕被形容为现代罕见、短期难以和解。焦点之一是赖政府提出约400亿美元特别国防预算，以及2026年度总预算在国会受阻；同时还要迎战2026年底地方选举（选出市长、市议员等），成为距2024年大选约2年后的首次大型检验。
安全压力同步升高：中国以「正义使命2025」为名在台湾周边进行大规模演训，动用陆海空与火炮单位，意在施压并展示军力。外部忧虑也加深：来自三大洲、超过半打（>6）名国外官员曾对政治对抗与长期安全风险表达严重关切；在台资深外交官亦指出，连基本自我防卫与安全共识都不足，使外界难以评估台北的防卫承诺。
司法战线同样被卷入：宪法法庭先前近1年因在野推动提高开庭与裁判所需法官最低门槛而几近停摆，之后又在12月突然回到核心。法院本月裁定相关法律违宪后，国民党于12月22日控告5名大法官涉违反刑法，并提案试图以公投推翻多数宪法法庭决定（除总统或副总统弹劾外）。分析者认为，各方在地方选举计算下更难妥协，但民调与摇摆选民压力可能迫使执政党逐步缓和语调。
After President Lai Ching-te took office in May 2024, Taiwan entered a period of divided government: an opposition coalition led by the KMT, alongside the TPP, controls the legislature and has worked for roughly 18 months to block key parts of Lai’s agenda. Heading into 2026, insiders describe the rift as unusually deep, limiting prospects for reconciliation or major compromises and raising concerns about political stability.
A central numerical flashpoint is Lai’s proposed $40 billion special defense budget, alongside a delayed 2026 government budget and other security-related bills. The standoff plays out under mounting external pressure, with China staging large-scale drills around Taiwan under the banner “Justice Mission 2025.” International unease has grown as well: officials from across three continents—more than half a dozen—have warned the clash could undermine long-term security, while diplomats say KMT resistance complicates efforts to encourage stronger self-defense commitments.
The judiciary has become another battleground. The Constitutional Court was effectively paralyzed for almost a year after lawmakers raised the minimum number of justices required for deliberations and rulings; it then revived in mid-December, struck down the change, and triggered retaliation. On Dec. 22, KMT lawmakers filed a complaint accusing five justices of criminal violations and pushed proposals to let referendums overturn most court decisions (except presidential or vice-presidential impeachment). With late-2026 local elections looming—two years after the last national vote—analysts expect electoral incentives to keep tensions high, even as Lai moderates his tone to win swing voters.