中国占据钇供应链的绝对主导地位：美国对钇的需求 100% 依赖进口，其中 93% 来自中国；对部分国家的中国出口量已下降约 30%。在限制措施下，欧洲钇氧化物价格自年初以来暴涨约 4,400%；海外库存不稳定，估计仅能维持 1–12 个月，一些贸易商从数百吨降至仅剩个位数吨位甚至完全断货。钇在航空发动机、半导体与燃气轮机中不可或缺，其供应缺口迅速压缩生产节奏，提高成本并威胁关键产业链的准时化运作。
尽管中美在 10 月会晤后暂缓部分新的限制，但核心管控机制仍然有效，包括针对含有≥0.1% 中国来源材料的产品实施许可要求。北京正推动一套优先向与美军工体系“无关联”的企业放行的许可体系，同时加强对稀土技术人员的名册审查、出境限制及对高端分离与精炼技术的出口禁令，从资源与技术两端维持主导权。这种高度弹性的管制使中国能够根据政治优先序调整国际供给，放大美国与盟友的战略脆弱性。
美国的反制力度有限。印第安纳州 ReElement Technologies 计划自 12 月起年产 200 吨钇氧化物，并在数月内将产能翻倍，但仍远不足以满足总需求。美日签署协议共同开发南鸟岛周边深海稀土资源，并启动联合研究以建设开采技术与基础设施；然而缺乏从开采到精炼的完整链条，使替代体系在短期内难以成型。总体态势显示：在需求增长与供应集中化叠加的格局下，钇已成为中美科技竞争的高敏度瓶颈。
China holds overwhelming dominance in yttrium: the US imports 100% of its needs, 93% directly from China, while Chinese exports to several countries have fallen by about 30%. Under tightened controls, Europe has seen yttrium oxide prices soar roughly 4,400% since the start of the year; inventories outside China are unstable, ranging from only 1–12 months, with some traders falling from hundreds of tons to single-digit tonnage or complete depletion. As yttrium is essential for jet engines, semiconductors, and gas turbines, supply contraction is slowing production, increasing costs, and destabilizing just-in-time industrial systems.
Although the October US–China meeting paused some new restrictions, core measures remain, including licensing requirements for products containing ≥0.1% Chinese materials. Beijing is advancing a system that favors companies deemed unconnected to the US defense sector, while tightening control over rare-earth technicians, restricting travel, and maintaining bans on exporting advanced processing technologies. This dual control of resources and expertise allows China to modulate supply based on political priorities and heightens US and allied vulnerability.
US countermeasures remain modest. ReElement Technologies in Indiana plans to produce 200 tons of yttrium oxide annually starting in December, with capacity set to double within months, still far below total demand. The US and Japan signed an agreement to jointly develop the deep-sea Minamitori deposit and launched studies on extraction technologies and infrastructure; however, without a full mine-to-refining chain, alternatives cannot emerge quickly. The overall trajectory shows yttrium becoming a high-sensitivity bottleneck in US–China technological competition.