原因在于，AI 正把中国贸易从低毛利、对汇率高度敏感的纺织、家具与日用品，转向半导体、伺服器与其他 AI 硬体等高附加价值产品。中国今年进口成长也明显快于出口，带动人民币升值通常会更受接受；道明银行观察到，2010-11 年与 2017 年两次进口远快于出口时，人民币也曾走强。
自 2013 年以来，中国贸易顺差已从约 2,600 亿美元扩大到去年接近 1.2 兆美元的纪录高位，而汇率曾从约 6 元/美元贬至多次超过 7 元/美元。如今形势逆转：4 月出口再创新高，约一半成长来自半导体与电脑，传统服装与家具则持平或下滑；分析师因此看多人民币，预测从 2026 年底约 6.75 元/美元到未来一年约 6.5，甚至更强，但央行仍警惕过快升值对利润、就业与外部风险的冲击。
The global AI investment boom is reshaping China’s export mix and making Beijing more comfortable with a stronger yuan. The onshore currency is headed for a sixth straight quarterly gain versus the dollar, a streak last seen in 2013, and it has reached its strongest level since 2023 even as the economy looks fragile and policymakers have shown little urgency to intervene.
The shift is driven by trade composition. China is moving away from low-margin, labor-intensive goods toward semiconductors, servers, and other AI hardware, while imports are rising faster than exports as the country buys more chips and semiconductor equipment. Analysts note that when inbound shipments outpaced outbound flows in 2010-11 and 2017, the yuan also strengthened, because a firmer currency makes imports cheaper.
Since 2013, China’s trade surplus has surged from about $260 billion to nearly $1.2 trillion last year, while the yuan moved from around 6 per dollar to above 7 at times. Exports hit another record in April, with roughly half of growth coming from semiconductors and computers, while clothing and furniture were flat or shrinking. Forecasts now point to further appreciation, with estimates ranging from about 6.75 year-end to 6.5 in the coming year, though officials still worry about exporter margins, jobs, and external risks.