气候模型警告，强烈的圣婴现象可能在今年稍晚出现，引发外界担心全球气温会被推向前所未有的极端。文章将这描述为可能的「Super El Niño」，并指出美国国家海洋暨大气总署（NOAA）最近把今年夏天形成圣婴的机率定为 62%。由于这么早的预测可靠度较低，讯号仍然只是初步的，但地下海洋中储存的额外热量与近地层信风减弱的组合，正提高这些条件可能发展成形的信心。

NOAA 的气候预报中心表示，如果圣婴真的形成，其最终强度仍高度不确定。该机构给出在 2026 年 10 月到 12 月期间发展成「强」圣婴的机率为 1-in-3，因此预报人员强调的是机率，而不是确定结果。文章也解释了太平洋的基本循环：反圣婴（La Niña）是较常见的状态，信风自东向西吹，将温暖的表层海水推向西太平洋，让较冷的海水在东部上升。

主要含义是，强烈的圣婴现象可能放大全球暖化的影响，并让已经很高的气温变得更加极端，但文章强调这并非必然。迄今为止的证据仅限于模型指引、海洋热含量与风场型态，这些都支持风险升高，而不是确定会发生。关键数字是今年夏天形成圣婴的机率为 62%，以及今年稍晚出现强事件的机率为 1-in-3，凸显了事件可能的规模与显著的预报不确定性。

Climate models are warning that a strong El Niño could emerge later this year, raising concern that global temperatures could be pushed toward unprecedented extremes. The article frames this as a possible “Super El Niño,” noting that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently put the chance of El Niño forming this summer at 62%. Because forecasts are less reliable this far ahead, the signal is still tentative, but the combination of extra heat stored in the subsurface ocean and weakening low-level trade winds is increasing confidence that conditions may develop.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says that if El Niño does form, its eventual strength remains highly uncertain. The agency gives it a 1-in-3 chance of becoming “strong” during October to December 2026, which is why forecasters are emphasizing probabilities rather than a firm outcome. The article also explains the basic Pacific cycle: La Niña is the more common state, with trade winds blowing from east to west and pushing warm surface water toward the western Pacific, which allows colder water to upwell in the east.

The main implication is that a strong El Niño could amplify global warming effects and make already high temperatures even more extreme, but the article stresses that this is not guaranteed. The evidence so far is limited to model guidance, ocean heat content, and wind patterns, all of which support an elevated risk rather than certainty. The key numbers are 62% for El Niño forming this summer and a 1-in-3 chance of a strong event later in the year, underscoring both the possible scale of the event and the significant forecast uncertainty.