白酒——中国最受欢迎的烈酒——正在失去劲头：今年零售价格一直徘徊在贵州茅台设定的1,499元（212美元）一瓶的基准线附近，直到近期有商家为吸引更多顾客无视定价策略，给出100元折扣。相对一个年销售额超过1,000亿美元的市场，这样的降价看似微小，但它打破了长期“稳价”的信号。

几十年来，茅台等酒企通过复杂的分销网络严格控制供给与价格，需求几乎总是超过供给；单瓶常卖到3,000元，老年份拍卖价曾超过500,000元。为遏制投机与囤货，企业会抽查商家执行建议价情况，消费者每天通常只允许买1到2瓶；如今价格跌破基准价，暗示供给正在超过需求，而茅台市值也已约为2021年的一半。

经济放缓压缩了商务宴请预算，5月的一项中央政府禁令还禁止国宴“抽烟喝酒”，同时年轻人转向更清淡、果味更重的饮品，令全国成千上万的经销商库存累积并急于出货。抖音上多家商家折价出售茅台旗舰款令行业震动，平台虽整治但其他网站仍出现同价商品，拼多多也以同样折扣吸引新客；茅台与五粮液发起“反内卷”行动，并在过去几周开设首个抖音直销渠道以重新掌控价格。

Baijiu—China’s favourite firewater—is losing its bite: retail prices have hovered around Kweichow Moutai’s 1,499-yuan ($212) benchmark this year until some vendors recently ignored the strategy and offered a 100-yuan discount to lure customers. In a market with over $100bn in annual sales, the cut looks small but signals a break in long-running price discipline.

For decades Moutai and peers tightly managed supply and prices through a complex distribution network, with demand usually exceeding supply; bottles often sold for 3,000 yuan and older vintages have fetched more than 500,000 yuan at auctions. To curb speculation and hoarding, firms spot-check vendors and typically limit buyers to one or two bottles a day; prices now slipping below the benchmark imply supply is overtaking demand, and Moutai’s value is about half its 2021 level.

An economic slowdown has squeezed client-entertainment budgets, a May central-government edict banned smoking and boozing at state banquets, and younger drinkers are shifting to lighter, fruitier drinks, leaving thousands of distributors with mounting stock to offload. Discounted flagship Moutai sales on Douyin shocked the industry and were curbed there but reappeared elsewhere, with Pinduoduo matching the discount to attract new users; Moutai and Wuliangye have launched an “anti-involution” push and, in the past few weeks, Moutai opened its first Douyin direct-sales channel to regain price control.

Source: What a stiff drink says about China’s economy

Subtitle: The baijiu business is the latest to be struck by “involution”

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 07:28 上午 | Shanghai