人工智能正在逆转旧的软件飞轮：美国的超大规模云厂商（Alphabet、Amazon、Meta、Microsoft）加上 Oracle，在截至 6 月底的 12 个月里合计资本开支达 3130 亿美元，高于三年前同期的 1460 亿美元；Amazon 的自由现金流减半，Meta 在 10 月借入 300 亿美元。
Oracle 成立于 48 年前，过去长期属于轻资产：在截至 2022 年初的十年里，资本开支很少超过销售额的 5%，毛利率徘徊在约 80%，自由现金流平均每年约 120 亿美元。在最新季度（截至 11 月底的三个月）营收同比增长 14% 至 160 亿美元，但资本开支吞噬了约三分之二的销售额，自由现金流转为大幅为负，净负债增加 110 亿美元至 880 亿美元，毛利率下滑至接近 70%，投入资本回报率从 13.5%（2022 年 11 月之前的数月）降至 10% 以下。
一份为 OpenAI 提供算力的 3000 亿美元、为期五年的合同一度令 Oracle 市值一夜增加 2550 亿美元并把其推近 1 万亿美元，但随着采用进度滞后与信用风险重新定价，这些涨幅此后已消失。债务与经营利润之比为 4.2，高于“安全”区间 0–3；摩根士丹利预计总负债（含数据中心租赁）将在三年内从略高于 1000 亿美元升至 3000 亿美元，同时债券收益率在过去两个月飙升，违约保险成本现约为 7 月水平的 3 倍且为 Microsoft 的 3 倍。
AI is reversing the old software flywheel: America’s hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) plus Oracle spent $313bn in capex in the 12 months to end-June, up from $146bn three years earlier; Amazon’s free cashflow halved and Meta borrowed $30bn in October.
Oracle, founded 48 years ago, once ran light: in the decade to early 2022 capex rarely topped 5% of sales, gross margins hovered near 80%, and free cashflow averaged about $12bn a year. In the latest quarter (three months to end-November) revenue rose 14% to $16bn, but capex consumed about two-thirds of sales, free cashflow turned sharply negative, net debt jumped $11bn to $88bn, gross margin slid toward 70%, and return on capital fell from 13.5% (months before November 2022) to below 10%.
A $300bn, five-year OpenAI computing contract briefly added $255bn of market value and pushed Oracle near $1trn, but the gains have since vanished as adoption lagged and credit risk repriced. Debt to operating profit is 4.2 versus a “safe” 0–3; Morgan Stanley projects total liabilities (including data-centre leases) rising from just over $100bn to $300bn in three years, while bond yields spiked in the past two months and default insurance now costs about 3× July levels and 3× Microsoft’s.
Source: Oracle and the hard truths about software
Subtitle: Running a giant digital business is not as fun as it used to be
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 12:51 下午