加密货币比特币自2009年问世以来，已经成为全球金融体系中发展最快的资产之一。2023年10月，比特币市值达到2.5万亿美元，随后价格从历史高点约126,000美元跌至92,000美元以上。尽管美国监管层批准了加密货币ETF、主流金融机构也积极推出相关产品，但比特币的进一步上涨缺乏新的利好叙事，交易量增长空间有限，广泛接受度加剧了其与其他金融市场的联系，使得价格下跌的影响波及更广。
杠杆风险显著上升。2024年1月，美国监管机构批准了首批加密ETF，此后投机性资金大举入场。一家名为Strategy的软件公司借入资金积累了约600亿美元的比特币，所持比特币价值超过公司市值。2023年10月10日，特朗普宣布对中国加征100%关税后，约190亿美元杠杆加密头寸被清空。比特币价格每进一步下跌，金融机构大规模抛售风险不断累积。
稳定币市场在一年内增长近50%，总规模逾3,000亿美元。其中大多数由美国国债支持，若熊市导致资金流出，可能迫使抛售国债、波及债券市场。主流金融公司涉足加密资产让相关风险向传统市场蔓延。目前，尽管立法者呼吁政府趁低价增持比特币，但政府大规模入场的前景仍然渺茫。缺乏新催化剂叠加投资情绪低迷，加密资产短期内难觅反弹动力，但市场依然不可排除突发的政治或政策利好。
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has become one of the fastest-growing assets in the global financial system. In October 2023, its market value peaked at $2.5 trillion, dropping from an all-time high of around $126,000 to above $92,000. Despite approvals of crypto ETFs by US regulators and increasing product launches by mainstream financial institutions, Bitcoin faces challenges in justifying further price gains due to a lack of new bullish narratives. The broad acceptance of crypto has deepened its links with other markets, amplifying the ripple effects of price drops.
Leverage risk has risen significantly. After the approval of the first crypto ETFs by US regulators in January 2024, speculative capital poured in. Strategy, a software company, borrowed to amass roughly $60 billion in Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding its own market capitalization. On October 10, 2023, about $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out following Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China. Every further drop in Bitcoin’s price heightens the risk of fire sales by financial institutions.
The stablecoin market grew by nearly 50% in one year, reaching over $300 billion. Most are backed by US Treasuries, so bear markets and outflows could force asset fire sales, potentially impacting bond markets. Mainstream finance’s adoption of crypto products binds risks tighter to conventional markets. Although some lawmakers push for the government to buy Bitcoin, large-scale official purchases appear unlikely. In the absence of new catalysts and with negative sentiment prevailing, a crypto rebound looks unlikely in the near term, though sudden positive political or policy surprises cannot be ruled out.