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在墨西哥,法定最低工资从2014年至2024年期间相对于中位收入增长了一倍,从中位收入的37%上升到74%。英国和韩国在同一时期内也有显著提升,英国的最低工资占中位收入的比例从47%升至61%,而新西兰略高,德国自2015年设立最低工资,已达中位收入的51%。美国虽然联邦最低工资仍停留在每小时7.25美元,但如加州和埃默里维尔等地已将地方最低工资提高到16.50和19.90美元,全国“有效最低工资”已达12美元,远高于联邦标准。

尽管许多经济学家转而支持高最低工资,最新研究显示负面影响正逐渐显现。例如,西雅图在2015-2016年提升最低工资后,至2016年第三季度,低薪岗位比对照模型减少7.4%;其他研究指出,超过每小时8美元的统一最低工资会显著损害美国就业。此外,最低工资的大幅提升导致班表不稳定、职业伤害增加,以及企业投资意愿下降。高最低工资主要惠及专业高收入者,因为企业对他们具更大议价能力,而低薪岗位可能因此消失。

尽管最低工资政策在墨西哥显著降低了贫困率,从2018年的50%降至2024年的35%,但经济学家担心继续大幅上调的后果。最低工资属于一种效率较低的收入再分配方式,还可能推高物价,实际对低收入者弊大于利。一些国家正在谨慎考虑进一步加薪,例如英国计划废除青年人较低工资标准,但智库已发出“谨慎行事”的警告,对各国政策制定者构成借鉴。

In Mexico, the statutory minimum wage doubled relative to median pay between 2014 and 2024, rising from 37% to 74% of the median. Britain and South Korea also saw significant increases during this period, with the UK’s minimum wage rising from 47% to 61% of median earnings, and New Zealand reaching nearly Mexican levels. Germany, after instituting its first minimum wage in 2015, now stands at 51% of the median. In the United States, though the federal minimum wage remains at $7.25 per hour, states like California and cities such as Emeryville have increased their local floors to $16.50 and $19.90, pushing the national “effective minimum wage” to $12, far above the federal level.

Although many economists have grown supportive of higher minimum wages, recent research highlights negative side effects. For example, after Seattle’s 2015-2016 minimum wage hike, low-paid jobs fell 7.4% by the third quarter of 2016 compared to a modelled counterfactual; studies now show that a uniform minimum wage above $8 per hour notably harms US employment. Furthermore, sharp increases make work schedules less predictable, raise workplace injuries, and curb firms’ investment. High minimum wages often benefit high-income professionals most, due to greater bargaining power, while low-wage workers might lose jobs entirely.

While Mexico’s minimum wage policy significantly reduced poverty—from 50% in 2018 to 35% in 2024—economists worry about the impact of continued steep rises. Minimum wages are an inefficient form of redistribution and may inflate prices, ultimately harming low-income workers. Some countries are proceeding cautiously on further hikes; for instance, the UK plans to abolish lower youth rates, but think-tanks have already advised the government to “tread carefully”—a warning relevant for policymakers everywhere.

2025-11-22 (Saturday) · 26e3beda06387fb29671c88977e31d823e6bb56b

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