2024年，发达国家新颁布的移民限制政策显著影响了全球流动：美国H-1B签证申请费提升至10万美元，英国将留学签证期限从两年缩短为18个月，并拟对学费征收6%附加税，加拿大则对国际学生总数设限。根据OECD数据，2024年赴发达国家因工作迁徙的长期移民人数同比下降20%，因留学的移民人数下降13%。作为主要输出国，印度约占美国H-1B申请者的70%，美国国际学生的30%，分别占英国和加拿大国际学生的25%和40%。2024年赴美、英、加、澳四国的印度留学生数量较去年减少约四分之一。
这些趋严措施将从三方面影响印度。首先是汇款减少。海外汇款相当于印度GDP的3%，覆盖约40%的贸易逆差。2024年，来自发达国家的汇款首次超过来自海湾国家的比例。其次，印度学生正转向新目的地。例如，过去两年德国的印度学生数量增长68%，俄罗斯增长59%，法国超过三分之一。第三，许多西方企业将原本在本土岗位转移至印度，如华尔街银行加大了在印度的“全球能力中心”招聘，高校也在印度设立分校以靠近学生资源。
长远来看，移民限制会削弱“头脑循环”——印度工程师赴美攀升激励了印度相关教育扩张，并造就了班加罗尔等国内科技中心。美国目前仍吸引印度顶尖才俊，但如果吸引力下降，印度面临留才难题。即便部分人才回流本土，仍需应对岗位质量、科研环境和生活质量等挑战。
In 2024, affluent countries sharply tightened migration rules: the US raised H-1B visa fees to $100,000, Britain cut its post-study visas from two years to 18 months and proposed a 6% university fee levy, while Canada capped student numbers. OECD data show a 20% year-on-year drop in work-related long-term migration, and a 13% drop for students. India, which accounts for roughly 70% of H-1B applicants, 30% of US international students, and 25% and 40% of Britain’s and Canada’s respectively, saw its student numbers in the US, UK, Canada, and Australia fall by about a quarter from last year.
The new restrictions impact India in three primary ways. First, a fall in remittances: overseas funds represent 3% of Indian GDP and cover 40% of its trade deficit, with rich countries overtaking the Gulf as a remittance source in 2024. Second, Indian students are shifting to new destinations, such as Germany (up 68% in two years), Russia (up 59%), and France (up more than a third). Third, Western companies are relocating jobs to India, including high-level functions like quantitative modelling and AI, while foreign universities establish Indian campuses.
Long-term, migration curbs reduce “brain circulation”: tech migration to the US spurred India’s own IT sector and education. If US appeal drops, India risks talent retention problems. Even if some returnees boost the local ecosystem, they must tackle lower pay, politicized universities, and poor living conditions.