2025 年外国人以每年约 1.7 兆美元的速度买进美国股票与债券，足以填补经常帐缺口；一旦信心动摇，资金外流可能压低美元并推升国际股市。美国在全球股市指数中的占比已从 2024 年底的 66% 降到现在的 64%，但其仅占全球 GDP 约 26%；非美市场估值约比美国便宜三分之一，且获利动能正在追上，特别是在新兴市场。长期来看，「高品质」股票 30 年来每年约胜过全球指数 2.5%（累积约 2,600% 对 1,200%）。
中国的股市反弹掩盖了内需疲弱：若没有出口激增，名目成长约只有 3%，低于官方约 4% 的数字；同时总债务已高于 GDP 的 300%，扩大口径的财政赤字高于 11%。对「倾销」的反弹也在升温：针对中国倾销的贸易调查自 2023 年以来已增加一倍以上，达到 120 件。其他地区的政策转向同样显著：美国净移民自 2023 年高点下滑 85% 至约 50 万，欧盟下滑 50% 至约 120 万，英国下滑 75% 至约 20 万，可能收紧劳动市场并推高通膨压力。社会趋势也偏向防御：两年内，认为「适量饮酒也不好」的美国人比例从 39% 升至 53%。
AI-driven US exceptionalism looks fragile: in 2025 rival markets beat US returns by roughly 2x even as US stayed afloat on AI inflows. Bubble risk rises if liquidity tightens—via Fed hikes, a credibility hit, or higher long rates. Meanwhile affordability strains: groceries cost ~30% more than five years ago; nearly one-third of low-income Americans spend ≥95% of income on necessities. The Fed has missed 2% inflation for 55 straight months, and fiscal policy may push the deficit back above 6% of GDP.
Foreigners bought US stocks and bonds at a $1.7tn pace in 2025, financing the current-account gap; a confidence break could weaken the dollar and lift international equities. The US share of the global index fell from 66% (end-2024) to 64% despite only ~26% of world GDP, while non-US markets trade at about a one-third discount and earnings momentum is catching up, especially in emerging markets. Long-run quality has beaten globals by ~2.5% a year for 30 years (≈2,600% vs 1,200% cumulative).
China’s rally hides domestic weakness: without the export surge, nominal growth would be ~3% vs ~4% reported, while total debt is >300% of GDP and the augmented fiscal deficit >11%. “Dumping” backlash is rising, with trade investigations more than doubling since 2023 to 120. Policy shifts elsewhere are also numeric: US net immigration fell 85% from 2023 peaks to ~500,000, the EU fell 50% to ~1.2mn, and the UK fell 75% to ~200,000—tightening labour markets and potentially inflation. Social trends skew defensive: Americans calling moderate drinking “bad” rose from 39% to 53% in two years.
