泡沫焦虑主要聚焦于股票、尤其科技股：一边是「企业盈利把资产价格扛上去」的事实，一边是通胀偏热、就业数据仅温和等「非金发姑娘」讯号。AQR认为估值已被拉得很紧，因此对未来5到10年的前瞻回报将更差有「很高的信心」，但也坦言无法预测下一次冲击何时、何地、因何而来。
华尔街对2026依旧偏乐观：德银预计标普500到2026年底较当前水平上涨约17%，指向8,000点；其他多家银行聚集在7,500附近，而当前约为6,845。联储仍在降息（至少目前如此），政府仍在支出；潜在退税像「免费钱」可能提振消费。长期的货币与财政救助形成道德风险与「逢跌买入」心态，使市场更像追逐资金流入，除非负面冲击极其巨大才可能改变趋势。
As 2026 opens, the dominant call is that the risk-asset “melt-up” continues. Major banks and asset managers are hard to find on the bearish side. Despite trade-policy and central-bank interference risks, 2025’s resilience makes persistent pessimism difficult to defend; the April slump tied to trade shocks now looks distant. One strategist noted that being at all-time highs alongside about 2.4% growth and easing trade tensions would have sounded like a best-case scenario in April.
Bubble anxiety remains, especially around tech. The tension is between stellar earnings-driven price gains and data that are not fully “Goldilocks”: inflation runs too hot while jobs data look merely lukewarm. AQR argues valuations are stretched, implying worse forward returns over the next 5–10 years, even while admitting no one can time or locate the next shock.
Forecasts for 2026 stay upbeat: Deutsche Bank sketches roughly 17% upside in the S&P 500 to 8,000 by end-2026; other banks cluster near 7,500 versus about 6,845 now. The Fed is still cutting rates (for now) and governments keep spending; possible US tax rebates could boost consumers like “free money.” Repeated monetary and fiscal backstops reinforce moral hazard and “buy the dip,” making markets feel driven by inflows unless a truly enormous shock breaks the trend.
