英伟达在11月下跌近13%，为3月以来最差表现，反映投资者围绕AI硬件投资是否形成泡沫的波动情绪。争论牵动全球市值以数千亿美元计的龙头企业估值。Scion的Michael Burry指控AI涨势建立在循环融资与贷款担保上，但英伟达披露仅有一笔贷款担保，金额8.6亿美元，占其年度销售额比例极低，并称合作方已放入4.7亿美元托管款且已预售算力以降低风险，显示不存在大规模隐性补贴需求。然而，该合作方需在高流动资金情况下仍无法自行融资，也暴露市场信用环境的异常紧张。

市场聊天与解读在上周持续升温。谷歌可能让Meta采用其自研AI芯片的报道曾一度引发英伟达技术领先地位动摇的猜测，但影响仅持续半天，英伟达股价迅速反弹。英伟达订单簿持续满载，利润率仍处高位，尚无价格竞争迹象；换言之，传统意义上的“洗牌期”尚未出现。若行业增长放缓，折扣争夺与份额战才会出现，而这些条件当前均未满足。

尽管基本面显示强劲供需与利润结构，市场仍担忧指数级增长不可持续。英伟达预计2025年收入将达到去年整个行业规模的三分之一，属前所未有的扩张速度。伴随数字、比率持续飙升，关于“是否泡沫”的询问急剧增加。报道者亦无法给定论，只能呈现当前事实数据。

Nvidia fell nearly 13% in November, its worst month since March, underscoring volatility in the debate over whether massive AI hardware spending signals a bubble. The stakes involve tens of billions of dollars in valuation swings for the world’s largest firms. Michael Burry accused Nvidia’s surge of relying on circular funding and loan guarantees, but Nvidia disclosed only one guarantee totaling USD 860 million—minimal relative to annual sales—and noted its partner placed USD 470 million in escrow and pre-sold cloud capacity. Still, the borrower’s inability to raise the remaining funds despite holding more than half the lease value highlights stressed credit conditions.

Market reactions intensified throughout the week. A report that Google might supply Meta with its in-house AI chips briefly fueled speculation that Nvidia’s dominance was eroding, but the effect lasted only hours before Nvidia recovered. With full order books and exceptionally high margins, Nvidia faces no competitive pricing pressure; a true “changing of the guard” would require industry growth to slow enough for discount-driven share battles, none of which are currently evident.

Despite strong fundamentals, anxiety persists that exponential growth cannot last. Nvidia is on track in 2025 to generate revenue exceeding one-third of last year’s entire industry total—an unprecedented expansion. As ratios rise, so do questions about a bubble. Journalists cannot resolve the uncertainty; they can only report the numerical realities.