全国层面，老化设施与灾害风险叠加：国土交通省统计在截至2024财年的两年内出现逾2.2万个天坑，多与老旧水管掏空土壤相关；近郊曾发生水管爆裂导致路面塌陷吞没卡车并造成司机死亡。约243公里下水道管线需在5年内修缮；2019–2023年被标记需补强的逾2.2万座桥梁，截至8月仍未动工，显示维护缺口扩大。
财源与人力下滑加剧地方脆弱：政府在最新经济方案中编列近3兆日圆，并于下一财年预算再加约5.4兆日圆投入更新与防灾，但相较2018年估算未来30年最多需195兆日圆仍显不足。珠洲过去25年市税收减43%、劳动年龄人口近乎腰斩；震后人口再降约11%，至11月底仅略高于1万。地方政府土木技术人员约20年到2024年减13%，近半自治体仅剩5名或更少；虽有无人机与AI巡检带动企业预期年销增约10%，但专业人力仍短缺，东京也以300万欧元韧性债拓展资金来源。
Japan’s Noto Peninsula illustrates how disasters expose aging infrastructure: after the magnitude 7.6 quake on Jan. 1, 2024, a key bridge in Suzu forced residents into major detours—2 km of driving instead of a 250 m walk. The 54 m Ukai Bridge, built in 1960, cracked and is expected to take years to rebuild, while the region shows tilted poles, cratered roads, and over 40,000 collapsed buildings already cleared.
National maintenance gaps are widening. The Land Ministry recorded more than 22,000 sinkholes in the two years through fiscal 2024, often tied to aging water pipes undermining soil; a water-main burst near Tokyo collapsed a road, killing a truck driver. Roughly 243 km of sewage pipes need repairs within five years, and more than 22,000 bridges flagged for reinforcement from 2019–2023 remained untouched as of August.
Funding and labor trends constrain recovery. The government earmarked nearly ¥3 trillion in an economic package and about ¥5.4 trillion more in the next fiscal-year budget, yet a 2018 estimate put 30-year renewal needs as high as ¥195 trillion. Suzu’s municipal tax revenue fell 43% over 25 years as its working-age population nearly halved; after the quake, population dropped about 11% to just above 10,000 by late November. Local civil-engineering staff fell 13% over ~20 years through 2024, nearly half of municipalities have five or fewer technical personnel, and even with drones/AI (one firm expects ~10% sales growth), skilled operators remain scarce; Tokyo also issued €300 million in resilience bonds.
