2026年4月8日星期一夜间，NASA 的 Orion 任务在50年后首次让四名宇航员绕月飞行，凸显NASA工程实力，但SpaceX当晚未参与。文章指出，Elon Musk虽未对NASA成就大做宣传，却正推进SpaceX首次公开上市（IPO）计划，据报估值目标约为2兆美元甚至更高，可能今年夏季前完成。在约4千亿美元（2025年）估值基础上，估值接近五倍成长，主要由AI市场情绪推升，而非火箭主业的直接成果，且带有在Anthropic与OpenAI之前抢先进入公开市场的时间压力。
从核心财务面看，SpaceX营收据称接近200亿美元，较去年约160亿美元上升，但其关键在研发载具Starship在去年下半年完成两次成功测试飞行后仍未到达近地轨道。SpaceX的主要商业来源Starlink目前约有1000万订户，远低于支持数兆美元估值所需的数亿规模。文章同时指出，T-Mobile US约有14倍订户却只有SpaceX估值的一小部分；在多个已建成基础网路的地区，Starlink还要面对激烈竞争，且在部分发展中国家价格被批评偏高，显示其订阅经济基础仍未放大。
估值逻辑近月反复以AI叙事推升：12月报导接近8000亿美元，2月又到1.25兆美元，核心理由是建置太空AI资料中心及与xAI整合。xAI被指每年仍在烧掉数十亿美元，且仅披露上一季约1亿美元收入；对比之下，OpenAI宣称每月营收20亿美元，约为xAI的60倍。至今可观察到的最明显协同是IPO参与方（投行与律师）需先开通Grok帐号。当前AI赛道已有Anthropic与OpenAI接近同档估值且主业规模更大，SpaceX叙事的落差仍在，尤其Tesla「新章节」策略亦出现问题，Robotaxi多为安全驾驶辅助、真正无人车仅9辆，且自12月以来Tesla股价下跌近30%。
On Monday night in April 2026, NASA’s Artemis II spacecraft carried four astronauts around the Moon for the first time in 50 years, showcasing the agency’s technical capability, while SpaceX was not involved. The article says that although Elon Musk stayed relatively quiet publicly, he is pressing ahead with a SpaceX IPO, with reports suggesting a valuation around US$2 trillion, possibly more, and aiming to do so before summer. Compared with a roughly US$400 billion valuation a year earlier, this is nearly a fivefold increase, largely fueled by AI-market hype rather than core rocket-business fundamentals, and with pressure to beat Anthropic and OpenAI to go public.
From the business fundamentals, SpaceX revenue is said to be approaching US$20 billion, up from about US$16 billion last year, but its flagship in-development Starship still has not reached low Earth orbit despite two successful test flights in the previous year’s second half. The main commercial engine, Starlink, has about 10 million subscribers, far below the scale—hundreds of millions—needed to justify multitrillion-dollar valuation assumptions. For context, T-Mobile US has roughly 14 times as many subscribers yet a valuation only a fraction of SpaceX’s; in many markets, Starlink also faces entrenched competition, and some developing-country users complain prices are too high, so its subscriber economics appear insufficiently expanded.
The valuation story has escalated repeatedly on AI themes: to about US$800 billion in December and US$1.25 trillion in February, tied to plans for space-based AI data centers and a combining narrative with xAI. xAI is said to still burn through billions of dollars a year and reported only about US$100 million revenue in the previous quarter, versus OpenAI’s claimed US$2 billion monthly revenue—about 60 times more. The clearest visible synergy so far is merely that IPO participants, including banks and lawyers, were reportedly required to open Grok accounts. With Anthropic and OpenAI already in the same valuation race with larger AI businesses, SpaceX’s positioning appears fragile; Tesla’s parallel “new chapter” pivot has also produced weak operational output (most robotaxis still safety-driver-assisted, only nine truly driverless, and Tesla shares down nearly 30% since December), widening the gap between the narrative and business reality.