自特朗普去年1月上任以来，美国经济仍然强劲：2025年美国GDP增长2.1%，而英国、法国和日本约为1%，德国几乎停滞；过去15个月美股屡创新高。尽管存在大规模驱逐移民和混乱的贸易战，经济仍跑赢全球，这引出了“让美国再次伟大税”（MAGA tax）究竟有多大的问题。
一种估算认为，三股推动力把美国2025年的增长抬高到约2.7%，比官方报告高出0.5个百分点以上。四家AI巨头2025年资本支出超过3500亿美元，2026年或达7000亿美元；扣除进口后，AI投资约带来500亿美元国内产出，推高年化GDP约0.2个百分点，而股市上涨又可能增加0.3个百分点，税改和放松监管在2025年再贡献约0.2个百分点、2026年约0.4个百分点。
但特朗普政策的直接拖累也很明显：关税据彼得森研究所估计在2025年压低实际GDP增速约0.2个百分点，驱逐和边境关闭据布鲁金斯学会估计再拖累约0.2个百分点。剔除AI相关投资后，非住宅固定投资年化萎缩约3%，工业和运输设备投资下降逾2%，制造业建筑下滑20%，总计使GDP增速减少约0.4个百分点；合计拖累约0.8个百分点，意味着若无“MAGA税”，当前季度年化增长率可能接近4%甚至5%。
Since Trump took office in January last year, America’s economy has remained strong: U.S. GDP grew by 2.1% in 2025, while Britain, France and Japan managed around 1% and Germany barely moved. U.S. stockmarkets have hit record after record over the past 15 months, even amid mass deportations and chaotic trade wars, raising the question of how large the “MAGA tax” really is.
One estimate puts the economy’s 2025 growth at about 2.7% after three boosts, more than 0.5 percentage points above the reported figure. Four AI giants spent more than $350bn in 2025 and may spend roughly $700bn in 2026; after subtracting imports, AI investment added about $50bn of domestic output and 0.2 percentage points to annualised GDP, while the stockmarket rally may have added 0.3 points and tax cuts plus deregulation another 0.2 points in 2025, or 0.4 in 2026.
The direct drag is also sizable: the Peterson Institute estimates tariffs cut 2025 real GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points, and Brookings says deportations and border shutdowns shaved off another 0.2 points. Excluding AI-related categories, non-residential fixed investment fell at an annualised 3%, industrial and transport equipment dropped more than 2%, manufacturing construction slid 20%, and non-AI investment ran about $130bn below trend, together subtracting roughly 0.8 percentage points from growth; without the MAGA tax, current-quarter annualised growth could be near 4% or even 5%.
Source: How much is Donald Trump costing America’s economy?
Subtitle: We calculate the drag on growth from fitful presidential policymaking
Dateline: 5月 21, 2026 05:01 上午 | Washington, DC