随着特朗普第二任期进入第二年，全球对美国领导力的信心正在加速下降，促使各国采取“对冲”策略以降低对美国的依赖。尽管美国仍掌握同盟体系、储备货币和核威慑等关键支柱，但在关税威胁、对国际法的轻视以及向盟友索取领土让步的背景下，这种依赖正从资产变为负债。在达沃斯论坛期间，越来越多国家公开或私下寻求分散风险，甚至开始考虑如何制衡美国本身，显示以美国为中心的国际秩序正在被重新评估。
这种对冲正在转化为可观察的政策与数字化取向。欧盟与南美南方共同市场达成贸易协议，标志着双方在跨大西洋紧张局势下推动贸易多元化。德国将部分原本用于采购美制武器的资金转向欧洲本土防务产业，丹麦在格陵兰争议前已选择法意导弹系统而非美制“爱国者”。欧洲和印太盟友在美国施压下提高国防开支，同时为“自助防卫”的未来铺路；甚至出现向格陵兰部署象征性部队、加拿大制定抵御美军入侵预案等过去难以想象的举动。核对冲讨论也在首尔、东京、斯德哥尔摩、华沙和柏林等地浮现。
对冲并非没有代价。短期内没有力量能完全替代美国安全保障，发展核武器成本高且政治风险大，欧盟内部协调也受制于分歧。部分国家尝试改善与中国的关系，例如加拿大推动新的“战略伙伴关系”，但中俄并非更温和的替代选项。随着Donald Trump以制裁、武器采购要求和美元依赖作为施压工具，若新结构无法在旧秩序被掏空前建立，2026年的对冲将进一步强化，全球稳定性面临更大裂痕风险。
As Donald Trump’s second term enters its second year, global confidence in US leadership is eroding, driving countries to hedge against overreliance on America. Although the US still anchors alliances, the reserve currency, and nuclear deterrence, tariffs, disdain for international law, and demands for territorial concessions from allies are turning dependence into liability. At Davos, states increasingly signaled efforts to diversify risk and, in some cases, to deter US power itself, indicating a reassessment of a US-centric international order.
This hedging is translating into observable policies and quantitative shifts. The European Union concluded a trade deal with Mercosur, accelerating diversification amid transatlantic strain. Germany is redirecting funds from US arms purchases to domestic and European production, while Denmark chose Franco-Italian missile defenses over US Patriots even before the Greenland dispute. European and Indo-Pacific allies are raising defense spending under US pressure while preparing for greater self-reliance; once-unthinkable steps include token deployments to Greenland and reports that Canada is planning contingencies to resist a US invasion. Nuclear hedging debates are also emerging in Seoul, Tokyo, Stockholm, Warsaw, and Berlin.
Hedging carries costs and risks. No near-term substitute exists for US security guarantees; nuclearization is expensive and politically fraught; and EU coordination remains constrained. Some states are reengaging China—Canada pursuing a new “strategic partnership”—yet Beijing and Moscow are harsher alternatives. As Donald Trump pressures allies with sanctions threats, arms-purchase demands, and dollar leverage, the absence of new structures before old ones hollow out could deepen instability. Accordingly, hedging is set to intensify in 2026, raising the risk that a global hedge becomes a global rift.