S&P 数据显示出更结构性的分化：中国第一季高科技出口同比上涨接近30%，几乎是当期全部出口增速的两倍。AI 相关的高新产品和电子类目自2025年底开始快速上升。2025年中国已是 AI 相关产品最大供应国，销售额超过7000亿美元，接近总出口的五分之一；全球 AI 支出预测在2026年超过2.5万亿美元。物流压力同步加剧，前往中东的集装箱运费一度达到4,000美元，约为战前的两倍，且可能需改道转运并承担额外费用。Rotunbot 表示2026年前半年订单较去年翻倍；X-Human 等公司指出，中东客户多为观望，因而加码欧美及亚洲市场以分散风险。
传统劳动密集产业表现较弱：文具、家具、玩具等类别普遍承压，仅玩具就录得第一季下滑15%。同时，人民币升值、运输和塑胶、纤维等原料成本上涨，挤压利润，但部分外销客户仍能吸收涨价。中国国家工业设计企业 THRAY 预计今年订单增加50%，波兰买家表示已接受中国供应商5%的涨价，原因是品质较好。WTO 与 IMF 警告能源价格长期偏高可能拖慢全球贸易并提高2026–27年衰退风险；另外，AI 产品提高出口总值，但因高附加值制造较少用工，就业拉动仍是隐忧。后续若伊拉克、叙利亚等中东战后重建提速，冷却设备与铜材等需求仍有回升空间。
At the Canton Fair in Guangzhou, amid Middle East conflict disruption, the standout shift was the rise of AI-driven manufacturing rather than traditional buyer profiles. Organizers said about 167,000 overseas buyers had visited by last Friday, around 6% higher than the previous year. X-Human said overseas demand still supports momentum, projecting 300% revenue growth in 2026 after two prior years of 40% gains, while the Middle East/North Africa accounted for 6.6% of China’s exports in 2025. Yet exports to the region fell 43% in March after the Strait of Hormuz episode, showing demand remains volatile.
S&P data show a structural split: China’s first-quarter high-tech exports rose nearly 30% year-on-year, nearly double total export growth. AI-linked products and electronics have accelerated since late 2025 across Asia. China was already the world’s largest AI-related supplier in 2025, with more than US$700 billion in sales—almost one-fifth of total exports—and global AI spending is forecast above US$2.5 trillion in 2026. At the same time, logistics pressure is sharp: container freight to the Middle East has reached up to US$4,000, about twice pre-war levels, with rerouting and extra charges. Rotunbot said first-half 2026 orders doubled; firms such as X-Human said many Mideast clients are waiting, so they are diversifying into Europe, the U.S., and Asia.
Traditional labor-intensive sectors are still weak: toy exports alone fell 15% in Q1, with furniture, textiles, and stationery also pressured. Exporters also face a stronger yuan, higher shipping, and rising input costs for plastics and fibers, compressing margins, though some foreign buyers still absorb price increases. THRAY expects orders to rise 50% this year on AI-enabled gadgets, while a Polish buyer said China’s products remain preferred despite a 5% price rise because of quality and value. The IMF and WTO warn prolonged oil-price shocks could slow global trade and increase the chance of worldwide downturn in 2026–27, and China’s export-led AI surge may not fully transmit to jobs because high-tech manufacturing is less labor-intensive. Yet post-war reconstruction in places such as Iraq and Syria could later revive demand for cooling equipment, valves, and plumbing-related goods.