关键量化数据反映出美国入境趋势明显收缩。美国海关与边境保护局显示，上年古巴入境尝试约8000人次，较2024年的180000人次大幅降幅约95.6%；Cirium数据显示，4月初古巴计划出港航班约有四分之一（接近25%）未起飞，高于1月的14%。拉美方面，巴西仍是主要目的地之一，但2026年1–2月古巴入境仅约2400人次，低于2025年同期4400人次；另一方面，联合国移民署前期数据显示，巴西庇护申请大幅上升，约为42,000人次，同比几乎增长90%，说明是“由美国单一路线转为区域分流”而非简单消失。
高昂费用是主制约。普通离境套餐常见单人超1000美元，且常含航班、转运与住宿；在苏里南方向，报价已升至约1500美元，而一年多前约为1000美元。古巴官方与民间资料下，月均工资约20美元（按非正式汇率），Yosbel Reyes需至少四个月才可能还清1500美元借款，尽管圭亚那建筑业日薪约40美元。自2020年以来古巴累计外流约275万人次；在尼加拉瓜2月取消签证豁免、哥斯达黎加关闭驻古巴使馆、厄瓜多尔召回大使等连锁后，迁移并未停止，而是因能源与政策联合作用而放缓、变向与分层化。
Under Trump's regime pressure on oil, trade, and migration, Cuba's roughly 10 million residents have faced shrinking mobility as nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages weaken aviation and administrative services. Flight schedules, transport, and document processing have become slower and more expensive, making departure less about willingness and more about payment capacity. The article describes migration paths shifting away from a singular U.S. route toward staged movement through Guyana, Suriname, and Brazil. Cases involving Ángel Fernández Hernández, Rafael Cristo, and Yosbel Reyes illustrate how families now pay for flights, transit, and temporary settlement before they can decide whether to continue elsewhere, even as U.S. policy seeks pressure on Havana after 67 years of one-party rule.
Key figures show a structural slowdown in U.S.-bound movement. U.S. Customs and Border Protection records show about 8,000 Cuban entry attempts last year, down from 180,000 in 2024. Cirium reports nearly one-quarter of scheduled flights from Cuba were canceled in early April versus 14% in January. In Latin America, Brazil remains central, but Cuban arrivals in Jan–Feb were about 2,400, down from 4,400 in the same period in 2025. United Nations migration data showed Brazilian asylum filings near 42,000 with an almost 90% rise, indicating migration is being redistributed across regional destinations rather than ending.
A major barrier is cost. Typical outbound packages exceed US$1,000 per person and may include onward transport and lodging, while similar routes to Suriname are now sometimes above US$1,500 versus about US$1,000 a year earlier. Cuba's average monthly wage is around US$20 at the informal exchange rate, and Yosbel Reyes said it would take at least four months to repay a US$1,500 debt despite job offers in Guyana around US$40 per day. Cuba has lost about 2.75 million people since 2020. With Nicaragua ending visa exemptions in February, Costa Rica closing its embassy in Havana, and Ecuador recalling ambassadors, migration is not ending but slowing and becoming increasingly fragmented under fuel and policy pressure.