苹果在2024年以3500美元起售推出Vision Pro，尽管技术被评价为混合现实界面设计的“世代飞跃”，但受限于重量、续航仅数小时、用途不足与缺乏Netflix等关键应用，其销售量在上市一年半后依然稀少，退货率显著。尽管多年研发投入达到数十亿美元，该产品仍偏离苹果原本希望实现的可全天佩戴轻量化眼镜的构想，其沉浸式设计也切断用户与现实环境的联系，使其主要只适用于媒体消费。
文章指出Vision Pro商业失败在逻辑上“可预见且必然”，然而这种失败恰恰证明苹果仍具备推进突破性创新的意愿与资源。回顾iPhone的历史，其问世前至少耗资1.5亿美元，甚至曾被Clayton Christensen断言会失败。作者强调，最成功的科技创举常在初期看似注定失败，而巨幅投入是突破的必要条件。苹果面对AI批评时依旧持续巨额投资，只是选择与行业不同的路径，并能及时止损，避免执念于错误方向。
苹果规模之大，使其容得下Vision Pro这种“注定失败”的押注。服务业务规模超过Target，iPad业务相当于AMD，iPhone业务甚至超过美国银行，说明只有在此体量下，才有能力承担推动未来技术所需的高风险试验。苹果愿意终止Vision Pro、保留技术积累并吸取市场对价格与人体工程学偏好的反馈，被视为其创新能力仍然旺盛的积极信号。
Apple launched the Vision Pro in 2024 at a starting price of USD 3,500. Despite being hailed as a “generational leap” in mixed-reality interface design, the device’s weight, limited battery life of only a few hours, restricted use cases, and lack of key apps like Netflix kept sales minimal and return rates high a year and a half later. Billions of dollars of R&D produced a device far from Apple’s original goal of all-day wearable glasses, while its immersive design isolated users from their surroundings, limiting it mostly to media consumption.
The article argues the Vision Pro’s commercial failure was “predictable and predetermined,” yet this very failure demonstrates Apple’s sustained appetite for breakthrough innovation. The first iPhone required at least USD 150 million to develop and was widely expected to fail, including by Clayton Christensen. The author notes that the best technologies often look doomed early on, and large up-front investment is essential for genuine breakthroughs. Even amid criticism for lagging in AI, Apple continues heavy investment but follows a different path from the broader industry, cutting losses quickly rather than becoming attached to unviable ideas.
Apple’s scale allows it to absorb bold bets like the Vision Pro. Its services revenue exceeds Target’s, the iPad matches AMD, and the iPhone surpasses Bank of America, illustrating that only a company of this size can finance high-risk experimentation needed to shape future technology. Apple’s willingness to discontinue the Vision Pro while retaining its technical advances and market lessons is presented as evidence that the company’s innovative capacity remains robust.