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布里在2023年末至2024年初大举押注中国大型科技公司,以低至约10倍市盈率买入Alibaba等资产,在外国资金撤离后进行典型价值型逆向投资。但其持仓仅维持两个季度便清仓,错过2024年以来超过80%的上涨,此期间由DeepSeek带动的AI重估成为核心驱动力。他在2025年第一季度全部卖出Alibaba,使Scion未能捕捉AI主题进入初期后的估值修复,暴露其对自认价值机会缺乏持续信念。

与此同时,布里在2025年第三季度对AI龙头采取看跌操作,依据SEC披露买入Nvidia与Palantir的看跌期权,押注AI热潮与超大规模计算商的盈利被夸大。他随后宣布Scion退还外部资本,使市场揣测其看空动机与AI估值顶部。但自2008年成功做空房市后,其后续重大押注表现分化,尤其是中国科技交易的时点偏差,使其“识别错误定价能力”受到质疑。

文章指出布里的名声扩大了其观点影响力,但其近年操作表明将科技公司视为宏观交易而非深度价值投资标的,且在AI主题“一局未完”时即退出。他的反AI立场与操作需要结合完整业绩评估,而非依赖单一历史壮举。作者强调在AI估值分歧加剧之际,投资者应听取其警示但必须独立判断。

Burry bought Chinese Big Tech aggressively from late 2023 through early 2024 at valuations as low as roughly 10× earnings, making a classic value-style contrarian bet after foreign investors fled. But he held the positions only two quarters before selling out, missing an over 80% rally driven by the DeepSeek-led AI re-rating. By exiting Alibaba entirely in Q1 2025, Scion failed to capture the early-stage AI repricing, exposing a lack of conviction in what he had identified as a value opportunity.

Simultaneously, Burry took bearish positions on AI leaders in Q3 2025, purchasing put options on Nvidia and Palantir, betting that AI hyperscalers were inflating earnings. His decision to return outside capital prompted speculation over motives and valuation concerns around the AI boom. But outside his 2008 housing-market triumph, his major subsequent calls have been mixed, with the mistimed China trades raising doubts about his ability to identify mispricing in the current cycle.

The article argues that Burry’s fame amplifies his influence, yet his recent actions show he is treating tech firms as macro trades rather than long-duration value assets, exiting while the AI theme was still in its early innings. His skepticism toward AI and related market valuations needs to be weighed against his full track record rather than one historic success. As AI-valuation debates intensify, the author concludes investors may note his warnings but must rely on independent analysis.

2025-11-19 (Wednesday) · 50b86097eb2565de3676679fac9e214bddca6856

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