在雷曼兄弟于2008年破产引发的金融崩盘过去刚刚超过17年之后，美国股市再次处于或接近历史最高点，其乐观情绪主要由人工智能与显著放松的监管环境推动。华尔街的薪酬模式自2008年以来基本未变，因此短期奖金的计算再次主导风险决策。

2010年签署的《多德-弗兰克法案》提高了银行资本要求并加强了风险约束，但其中针对激励性薪酬的第956条在特朗普第一届政府期间实际上被搁置，如今大体只存在于纸面之上；“追索返还”(clawbacks)仍然罕见且多为象征性。奖金往往是年薪的数倍，而年薪本身可能高达数十万美元，从而奖励当年利润，即使相关交易的亏损会在之后才显现。

同样的不对称激励已扩散到监管更轻的非银行机构：以自动化模型、统计套利与超高速执行为核心的交易公司按年度利润分成，没有递延，也没有追索返还，且常以借入资金交易；与此同时，私募信贷已成为一个数万亿美元规模的影子银行部门，其附带收益(carried interest)与早期年份的放贷发起量和回报挂钩，尽管贷款的真实表现可能要到十年后才清楚。去监管进一步加速这一趋势：特朗普第一任期的“每出一条新规就取消两条旧规”要求推动了放松监管，而其第二任期则通过更换执法者来削弱执行——2月CFPB活动被暂停、SEC对加密与金融科技的案件被撤销或搁置——为“错配账本”提供空间；雷曼倒闭曾在数周内造成约10万亿美元的全球股票损失，显示新的火花可能达到的规模。

Just over 17 years after Lehman Brothers’ 2008 bankruptcy-triggered crash, U.S. stock markets are again at or near all-time highs, driven by artificial intelligence and a markedly looser regulatory climate. The Wall Street pay model is essentially unchanged since 2008, so short-term bonus math again dominates risk decisions.

Dodd-Frank, signed in 2010, raised bank capital and constraints, but Section 956 on incentive pay was effectively shelved in the first Trump administration and now exists largely on paper; “clawbacks” remain rare and mostly symbolic. Bonuses are often multiples of salaries that can run several hundred thousand dollars, rewarding current-year profits even when losses surface later.

The same asymmetric incentives have spread to lightly supervised nonbanks: automated trading shops built on models, statistical arbitrage, and ultra-high-speed execution pay annual profit shares with no deferrals and no clawbacks, often using borrowed funds, while private credit has become a multi‑trillion‑dollar shadow‑banking sector where carried interest is tied to early-year origination volume and returns even though true loan performance may take a decade. Deregulation accelerates this: Trump’s first-term “two rules out for one in” mandate rolled back oversight, and in his second term enforcers were replaced—CFPB activity was paused in February, SEC crypto/fintech cases were dropped or stalled—creating room for “mismatched books”; Lehman’s collapse wiped about $10trn of global equities within weeks, highlighting the scale a new spark could reach.

Source: It’s fire season for finance, writes Ken Miller

Subtitle: A former top banker predicts that an unreformed pay system and the gutting of regulation will accelerate the next financial crisis

Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 05:49 上午