尽管过去12个月标普500上涨14%、10年期美债收益率为4.3%且低于就职时水平，美元自2025年1月峰值以来对一篮子货币下跌约10%，使得以欧元计价的美股过去一年几乎不涨。市场对人工智能的追逐与强劲增长并存，但以外币衡量的美国资产表现明显走弱。

政策冲击引发的“共同下跌”事件更频繁：在过去52周中有7周出现投资者同时抛售美国债券、股票与美元，约为此前十年左右频率的3倍，并在2025年4月“解放日”关税后尤为显著。与此同时，外国人持有的美国资产净额约相当于美国GDP的89%，黄金价格升至约5,000美元、同比上涨约75%，显示对美元贬值与尾部风险的对冲需求上升。

2026年1月30日宣布提名凯文·沃什后出现短暂“松口气”反弹，但过去一个月美元仍下跌1.5%、黄金上涨14%，而通胀2.8%仍高于2%目标。若大幅降息叠加财政刺激，今年税收减免与退税约带来0.3% GDP刺激，且若关税被裁定违法可能再有0.5% GDP的退款，合并刺激可能推高通胀并进一步削弱美元，而美元按实际值仍高于长期均值且在“大麦克指数”下对多数货币被高估。

Despite a 14% rise in the S&P 500 over the past 12 months and a 4.3% ten-year Treasury yield that is lower than at inauguration, the dollar has fallen about 10% against a broad basket since its January 2025 peak, leaving US assets weak in foreign-currency terms. In euros, for example, American stocks have barely risen over the past year.

Policy shocks are producing more “everything sells off” episodes: in 7 of the past 52 weeks investors fled US bonds, stocks, and the currency at once, about three times as often as in the prior decade or so, notably after the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs. At the same time, foreigners’ net ownership of American assets is about 89% of US GDP, and gold has surged to around $5,000, up about 75% in a year, signaling rising hedging against dollar debasement and tail risks.

A brief relief rally followed the January 30, 2026 announcement nominating Kevin Warsh, yet over the past month the greenback is still down 1.5% while gold is up 14%, and inflation at 2.8% remains above the 2% target. If big rate cuts coincide with fiscal stimulus, this year’s tax cuts and refunds add about 0.3% of GDP and potential tariff refunds could add 0.5% of GDP, a combined boost that could lift inflation and further weaken a dollar that is still above its long-run real average and, by the Big Mac index, overvalued versus most currencies.

Source: The age of a treacherous, falling dollar

Subtitle: Those holding American assets will have to get used to it

Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 09:24 上午