丹麦语“hygge”指向一种舒适放松的状态，但当下北欧防务辩论把“内心安宁”的来源转向核威慑，围绕“北欧核武”以保护丹麦、芬兰、冰岛、挪威和瑞典这5国的讨论升温，同时波兰、日本和韩国这3个美国盟友也在评估是否需要本国核武器。德国等国则提出与英国、法国这2个欧洲核国家开展协作，而瑞典首相上月的表态强调：在危险国家仍拥有核武器的情况下，民主国家也必须获得核武器的可及性。
随着《新削减战略武器条约》（New START）临近到期，美国、中国和俄罗斯被描述为站在军备竞赛边缘，削弱了“核国家逐步裁军、无核国家放弃核武”的长期交换，从而使过去近80年由美国延伸核威慑支撑的相对稳定秩序出现裂缝。历史上，对美国承诺的疑虑早在1961年就被法国总统戴高乐以“是否愿以纽约换巴黎”的反问点明，但当时的保证与施压仍足以劝阻瑞典和台湾等走向拥核。
当前“扩散”话语从以往主要集中于伊朗、朝鲜等“流氓国家”，转向由民主国家公开讨论，其驱动在欧洲更多与俄罗斯侵略阴影及对乌克兰的核威胁相关，在亚洲则更多指向中国不断增长的核库规模。尽管一项核计划可能需要数年且会以巨额资金挤压常规力量投入，但更多潜在核决策者意味着更高的误判概率，因此文中强调“止步于门槛能力”、建立热线等危机管控机制，以及由英法与盟友构建更广泛核保护伞等选项。
The Danish word “hygge” evokes cozy relaxation, but today Nordic defense debate is shifting “inner peace” toward nuclear deterrence, with talk of a “Nordic nuke” to shield five states (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) while three U.S. allies (Poland, Japan, South Korea) also weigh their own weapons. Germany and others discuss cooperation with two European nuclear powers (Britain and France), and Sweden’s prime minister said last month that if dangerous countries have nuclear arms, democracies must have access to them.
As New START nears expiry, the United States, China, and Russia are portrayed as close to an arms race, weakening the long bargain of nuclear-state disarmament in exchange for non-nuclear restraint, and fracturing the relatively stable order underwritten for almost eight decades by America’s extended deterrence. Doubt about that pledge was crystallized in 1961 when Charles de Gaulle asked whether Washington would “trade New York for Paris,” yet assurances and pressure then helped keep places like Sweden and Taiwan out of the nuclear club.
Proliferation talk is shifting from being mainly about rogue states like Iran and North Korea to open debate among democracies, driven in Europe by fear of Russian aggression and nuclear threats against Ukraine and in Asia by China’s growing arsenal. Even if a weapons program could take years and divert huge sums from conventional forces, more fingers near doomsday triggers implies a higher risk of miscalculation, so options highlighted include stopping short of a bomb via latent capacity, building hotlines and other crisis-dampening mechanisms, and extending a broader umbrella through Britain and France.
Source: How to think about new risks of nuclear proliferation
Subtitle: In a might-makes-right world, many countries may conclude that only nukes can keep them safe
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 04:18 上午