距推翻谢赫·哈西娜·瓦杰德及其暴力的人民联盟的革命已过去18个月；2月12日，拥有1.76亿人口的国家将举行大选，标志着民主终于回归，也是自2008年以来孟加拉国首次有竞争性的投票。数月来外界担忧会爆发暴力，但迄今这些担忧所幸并未成真。
选战主要由两个老牌、都曾遭旧政权迫害的政党主导：最大且较温和的伊斯兰主义团体伊斯兰大会党，以及由已故前总理卡莉达·齐亚长期领导、现由其子塔里克·拉赫曼出面领衔的孟加拉国民族主义党（BNP），后者被看好获胜。尽管新党派未崛起、伊斯兰主义者的包容性可能被高估、而BNP以往执政因严重腐败而蒙尘，但相较两年前的凄惨局面与看守政府可能失控的现实恐惧，进步幅度仍值得肯定。
最紧迫的焦虑是经济：尤努斯领导的临时政府避免了灾难，但在孟加拉国今年将从“最不发达国家”类别毕业、失去部分贸易与优惠贷款优势之际，改革压力陡增。政府收入仅占GDP的7%，而亚洲平均为20%，这凸显增收、提升工厂效率、削减繁文缛节并打击以腐败勒索企业的官僚体系的必要性，同时还需修复对印关系并推动宪改以降低再现暴政的风险；重建政治也包括为被禁的人民联盟复归铺路，尽管其尚未为约1,400人死亡承担责任。
Eighteen months after a revolution toppled Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her Awami League, Bangladesh will hold a general election on February 12 in a country of 176m people, marking democracy’s return and the first competitive vote since 2008. Months of fears about violence have so far been proved wrong.
The contest is mainly between two long-established parties previously persecuted by the old regime: Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest and more moderate Islamist outfit, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), once led by former prime minister Khaleda Zia and now fronted by her son Tarique Rahman, with the BNP favoured to win. Despite disappointment that upheaval has not empowered better new parties, doubts about Islamist tolerance, and the BNP’s corruption-tainted record, progress looks significant against the wretched state two years ago and fears the caretaker government would fail to keep the peace.
The economy is the most urgent worry: Muhammad Yunus’s interim government averted disaster, but Bangladesh’s graduation this year from “least developed country” status raises the stakes as trade and concessional-loan advantages fade. Government revenue is 7% of GDP versus 20% across Asia, underscoring the need to boost receipts, raise factory efficiency, cut red tape, and curb corrupt bureaucrats, while also resetting India ties and advancing constitutional reforms to reduce tyranny risk; political renewal includes rehabilitating the Awami League despite its lack of accountability for about 1,400 deaths.
Source: The new Bangladesh is only half built
Subtitle: Whoever wins the coming election has a lot to do
Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 06:12 上午