中国在委内瑞拉的布局似乎被美国的突袭打乱：据报中国拉美事务特使邱小琪上周与被罢黜的马杜罗长谈数小时，还称彼此为「战略伙伴」，但不到24小时后马杜罗即被美军逮捕；中方与亲中媒体随后低调处理相关报导，显示北京可能措手不及，并低估了特朗普政府的强硬姿态。

在能源层面，北京以贷款换取石油权益并透过第三国规避制裁：委内瑞拉原油约占中国总进口的5%至7%；中资企业掌握约120亿至150亿桶的委内瑞拉石油权益，约相当于中国自身储量的一半。资金方面，委内瑞拉累计获得近600亿美元中资，据信仍有约100亿美元未清偿，促使金融部门要求大型银行盘点对委风险曝险。

中国在拉美的利益也延伸到「锂三角」与粮食供应：2024年中拉贸易额超过5000亿美元，约为10年前的近两倍；截至2024年底，中国对拉美的对外直接投资存量据称超过6000亿美元，并在2024年首次高于美国。北京还提出「团结计划」，每年邀请300名CELAC国家高级党务官员、连续三年；而特朗普宣示西半球「美国主导」不容质疑，且习近平计划4月接待特朗普峰会，使北京面临调整拉美策略的压力。

China’s Venezuela strategy appears to have been jolted by a sudden U.S. move. Reports said China’s Latin America envoy Qiu Xiaoqi met ousted President Nicolás Maduro for hours last week and called the two countries “strategic partners,” but Maduro was captured by U.S. forces less than 24 hours later. Subsequent pullbacks in Chinese-linked coverage and sparse official detail suggest Beijing was caught off guard and misread the Trump administration’s hard line.

The stakes are heavily numerical and energy-driven. Venezuela supplies roughly 5% to 7% of China’s total oil imports via third countries to skirt U.S. sanctions. Chinese firms reportedly hold rights to about 12 billion to 15 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil—around half of China’s own reserves. China has provided nearly $60 billion in capital to Venezuela, with about $10 billion believed outstanding, prompting authorities to assess bank exposure.

China’s broader Latin America push spans lithium and food, alongside fast-growing trade and investment totals. Trade with the region exceeded $500 billion in 2024, nearly double the level a decade earlier, and reported Chinese FDI stock surpassed the U.S. for the first time in 2024, reaching above $600 billion by end-2024. Beijing also pledged to host 300 senior CELAC party officials per year for three years. Trump’s renewed claim of U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere, ahead of an April summit, increases pressure on China to recalibrate.