疫情后的低成本融资推动了软件交易热潮。估值上升，2021年私募股权与风险投资市场出现创纪录的并购，但随后未对冲的利率上升削弱了经济性并抬高借贷成本。过去18个月人工智慧快速进展使单一行业集中度显得更为风险。2026年在杠杆贷款市场，传统科技债务溢价已崩解，且直接贷款投资者正在撤出，部分基金被迫限制赎回。软件重仓组合的债务价格与估值同步下跌，而贷方也转向更严格的退出行为。
信贷风险正在加深。预计2028年到期的科技债务超过1400亿美元将在2027年下半年面临再融资压力，其中大量来自2021年批次；这些贷款中约三分之一仍有2021年的信用档案，平均价格仅83.40美元。另有与BDC相关、到期在2026年的软件债务超过310亿美元。更高利息支出将迫使部分较弱借款人寻求主导方增资；有观点称直接贷款借款人中高达15%可能违约，且多数投资组合约30%敞口仍在软件。不良PIK——以资本化利息替代现金支付的借款人——从2021年底的2.5%跃升至Q4的6.4%，并且上升中的贷款价值比进一步显示压力可能向违约与重组扩散。
Private software markets are facing a major refinancing test: more than $330 billion in high-yield, leveraged-loan, and business-development-company linked software and technology debt matures through 2028. AI-driven uncertainty and higher financing risk from Middle East conflict fears are squeezing lenders, while private capital is rethinking earlier bets. Software was heavily favored for fifteen years, with software and technology services becoming nearly half of private equity deals across buyout, venture, and growth funds. That concentration once justified itself with strong returns, but the technology-premium advantage is now shrinking.
Cheap funding after the pandemic drove a software deal boom. Valuations climbed, and 2021 saw record M&A in private-equity and venture markets, but later unhedged rate increases eroded economics and raised borrowing costs. Over the past 18 months, rapid AI progress made that one-industry concentration seem riskier. In leveraged loans in 2026, the traditional technology debt pricing premium has collapsed, while direct-lending investors are pulling back and some funds are limiting withdrawals. Debt prices and valuations are falling for software-heavy portfolios as lenders shift to stricter exit behavior.
Credit stress is deepening. More than $1.4 trillion in technology debt due in 2028 is expected to face refinancing pressure from the second half of 2027, with much of it from 2021 vintages; about one-third of those loans still carry 2021 credit dates, and their average price is only $83.40. Separately, BDC-linked software debt maturing in 2026 is over $31 billion. Higher interest expense will force some weaker borrowers to seek sponsor injections; some estimates say as many as 15% of direct-lending borrowers may default, while many portfolios still have around 30% exposure to software. 'Bad PIK' borrowers—who capitalize interest rather than paying it in cash—rose from 2.5% at end-2021 to 6.4% in Q4, and rising loan-to-value ratios suggest stress likely to spread into defaults and restructurings.