他的核心量化警告是后勤：约束最迫切的任务是让油轮进入波斯湾，因为海上与陆上储存容量都有限。区域产油国，包括 Saudi Arabia、Kuwait、Iraq、the United Arab Emirates、Qatar 与 Iran，起初维持接近正常的装船节奏，但据报 Iraq 已在 Rumaila 油田因储槽趋满而开始减产。炼油环节使比例问题恶化：当航空燃油需求下滑时，成品油储存很快饱和，迫使炼厂降负荷，并把每一桶未被炼制的更高占比推向本已受限的原油出口通道。
绕行路线存在，但只能部分替代。Saudi Arabia 与 the UAE 可透过管线把部分原油改送至红海与阿拉伯海终端，但运能上限与油轮数日的重新部署延迟，使其无法完整取代荷莫兹航运。业界与 Washington 的讨论集中于两种操作模式：由美国宣告风险下降后复航，或以军舰护航分批通行，这呼应了 1980 年代中期 Operation Earnest Will 的先例。价格讯号目前仍属可控但正在上行：Brent 约由每桶 71 美元升至 84 美元（+13 美元，约 +18.3%；约合每立方公尺 447 美元升至 528 美元，原始单位：barrel）。
Javier Blas argues that the opening phase of the Third Gulf War hinges on how fast the US can restore tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and the window is measured in days, not weeks. The strait carries roughly 20% of global crude and refined-product flows, yet by day four large tankers had mostly stopped crossing, while only a few small or medium vessels moved at night with AIS signals off. Iran has not clearly mined the channel, but coastal short-range missiles and low-cost drones still create a credible strike risk.
His central quantitative warning is logistical: the most urgent task is getting tankers into the Persian Gulf, because both floating and onshore storage are finite. Regional producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iran, initially kept loadings near normal, but Iraq reportedly began cutting Rumaila output as tanks filled. Refinery dynamics worsen the ratio problem: when jet-fuel demand drops, refined-product storage saturates, forcing lower refinery runs and pushing a higher share of each unrefined barrel toward crude export channels that are already constrained.
Bypass routes exist but are partial. Saudi Arabia and the UAE can reroute some crude via pipelines to Red Sea and Arabian Sea terminals, yet capacity limits and tanker repositioning delays of several days prevent full substitution for Hormuz traffic. Industry talks with Washington center on two operating models: a US declaration of safer conditions or escorted convoy batches, echoing the mid-1980s Operation Earnest Will precedent. Price signals remain contained but rising: Brent moved from about $71 to $84 per barrel (+$13, about +18.3%; approximately $447 to $528 per cubic meter, original unit: barrel).