文章指出，美元「被稀释」的全球主导地位可能在 2026 年开始加速松动：美国在全球贸易中的占比已从 2000 年约 1/3 降至如今约 1/4。新兴经济体彼此贸易增加，使美元在货物流动中的中心性下降；印度与俄罗斯等交易更常以卢比、迪拉姆、人民币结算。中国方面，已有「超过一半」的贸易改走本国跨境支付系统 CIPS，而非长期由西方银行主导的 SWIFT。
同时，外汇储备的结构也在转变：美元占全球储备比重从 1999 年的 72% 降至如今约 58%，并仍在下滑。美国财政与外部失衡被视为压力来源：2025 年财政赤字预估 1.9 兆美元，经常帐缺口估计约占 GDP 的 6%。美国国债市场也不再被视为「无限流动」：全球系统中流通的美债超过 27 兆美元，但主要做市商资产负债表承载能力未同步扩张；回顾 2020 年 3 月的美债市场失灵，显示压力时仍可能需要联准会介入。
作者认为 2026 年对美元的威胁未必来自单一替代货币，而是绕开美元管道的支付与结算「新管线」。例子包括由中国、香港、泰国、阿联酋等央行与 BIS 推动的 mBridge，以及让 BRICS+ 以本币直接支付的 BRICS Pay。更具竞争力的可能是稳定币：若多币种或非美元稳定币扩张，可能成为「中立」结算轨道；例如以离岸人民币（CNH）或商品篮子（如黄金、石油）支撑的代币，或可用于港口建设、油气运输、区域基建等实体交易，并使传统「百年更替」的节奏被数位金融加速压缩。
The piece argues that 2026 may mark an inflection point in the “dilution” of US dollar dominance. A key driver is shifting trade patterns: America’s share of global trade has fallen from about one-third in 2000 to roughly one-quarter today. As emerging economies trade more with each other, settlement is moving into alternatives such as rupees, dirhams, and yuan. In China, more than half of trade is said to flow through CIPS rather than SWIFT, signaling a gradual re-routing of payment plumbing.
Reserve data reinforce the trend: the dollar’s share of global reserves has dropped from 72% in 1999 to about 58% today and is still declining. Fiscal and external imbalances add pressure, including a projected $1.9 trillion US deficit in 2025 and a current-account gap estimated near 6% of GDP. Even the Treasury market’s presumed liquidity is questioned: over $27 trillion of Treasuries circulate globally, yet dealer balance sheets have not scaled, echoing the March 2020 stress episode that required central-bank support.
The main risk is portrayed less as a single rival currency and more as parallel settlement systems designed to bypass dollar-based channels. Examples include mBridge (linking China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE with BIS support) and BRICS Pay for BRICS+ local-currency transfers. Stablecoins are highlighted as potentially stronger “rails”: while most are dollar-pegged today, multicurrency or non-dollar tokens (including RMB-linked or commodity-backed designs) could clear real transactions and compress the historically century-long timeline of currency transitions.