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作者称今年读了约一百本书,其中三本最突出:两本非虚构聚焦地缘经济动荡与中国崛起,一本小说用俄罗斯视角呈现不可预测的威胁。核心数字是「约100→精选3」、「2本非虚构+1本小说」,并以历史周期感串起对下一次崩盘的警惕。

第一本是关于1929年华尔街崩盘的作品,并拿2008-2009年金融危机作对照:1920年代的融资买股、监管稀薄、投机情绪高涨,像是在全球疫情后的「动物精神」回潮之下重演;作者也点出关税与孤立倾向的回归,暗示政策与市场泡沫可能同向累积风险。

第二本传记以习仲勋的一生(从高位到被整肃、监禁)串联二战、毛的崛起、文革与对外开放,并将其视为理解习近平(文中称「世界上最有权力的人」)的心理线索;同时贬抑普丁只是「中层KGB操盘手」。第三本《Hotel Ukraine》出自已于「去年夏天」死于帕金森氏症的作者,属11本探员系列之一(自1981年起),映照俄罗斯约四十年的变迁;书中提到布查暴行却写成2002年,且以2026年所需的韧性作结。

The author says he read about 100 books this year and singles out 3: 2 nonfiction works on geoeconomic instability and China’s rise, plus 1 novel to capture the unpredictability of Putin’s Russia. The numeric framing (≈100 → 3) sets a curated warning about how quickly economic and geopolitical shocks can compound.

Book 1 revisits the 1929 Wall Street crash, echoing lessons from the 2008–2009 recession: in the 1920s, margin buying, weak regulation, and post-pandemic “animal spirits” pushed markets to record highs. He argues the mix feels familiar today, especially with renewed tariffs and isolationist instincts that can amplify market fragility.

Book 2 is a biography of Xi Zhongxun that doubles as an origin story for Xi Jinping, spanning WWII, Mao’s rise, the Cultural Revolution, and China’s opening; it contrasts deep analysis of Xi with a simpler portrayal of Putin as a mid-level KGB spymaster. Book 3, Hotel Ukraine, comes from a series of 11 Arkady Renko novels begun in 1981, portraying roughly 4 decades of Russia; it mentions Bucha atrocities but dates them as 2002. The piece closes with a 2026 call for resilience via Hemingway.

2025-12-29 (Monday) · 3a8d467a6052c9ee78bfd9082534ebc0f442491a