台湾长期被低估的货币催生了以出口为主的繁荣和全球最大的经常帐顺差（不包括转口港/石油国）。台币按GDP调整的大麦指数约低估了55%。十月的货物贸易顺差年化达到创纪录的占GDP 31%，最近的经常帐顺差约为占GDP 16%（中国≈3%）。外汇储备接近6000亿美元。芯片和电脑制造商约占出口的75%且接近名义GDP的50%；20%的升值可能使台积电的营业利润率下降约8个百分点，但利润仍高于Alphabet或Apple。
廉价货币政策现在带来不断上升的代价：私人消费自1998年以来已下降约占GDP的20个百分点，房价自1998年以来大致翻了四倍，保险公司已将近1万亿美元的家庭储蓄大量投向美国国债，造成美元资产/新台币负债的不匹配。央行转移款约占政府收入的6%，而富裕国家的平均为0.4%。约70%的制造业就业在依赖低利润的企业中，这些企业对升值脆弱，而顶级芯片制造商能承受更强的货币。
这些失衡带来金融和政治风险：美元的进一步波动可能使保险公司不稳定；美国的贸易鹰派可能迫使货币重新估值；五月的一次事件导致对美元升值9%。中央银行应逐步放松汇率管制并设定长期升值路径（如新加坡），同时政府——总债务约占GDP的23%——支持工人再培训并分阶段推进改革以限制快速冲击。可控的、渐进的升值将把更多消费权力转移给家庭并降低系统性风险。
Taiwan’s long-undervalued currency has generated a towering export-led boom and the world’s biggest current-account surplus (excluding entrepots/petrostates). The Taiwan dollar is about 55% undervalued by the GDP-adjusted Big Mac index. October’s goods-trade surplus annualised hit a record 31% of GDP and the current-account surplus recently reached about 16% of GDP (China ≈3%). Foreign reserves stand near $600bn. Chip and computer makers account for roughly 75% of exports and nearly 50% of nominal GDP; a 20% appreciation might cut TSMC’s operating margins by ~8 percentage points but leave profits above Alphabet’s or Apple’s.
The cheap-currency policy now exacts rising costs: private consumption has fallen ~20 percentage points of GDP since 1998, house prices have roughly quadrupled since 1998, and insurers have parked nearly $1trn of household savings largely in US Treasuries, creating a dollar-asset/TWD-liability mismatch. Central-bank transfers equal about 6% of government receipts versus a rich-world average of 0.4%. Around 70% of manufacturing employment is in thin-margin firms vulnerable to appreciation, while top chipmakers can tolerate a stronger currency.
These imbalances create financial and political risks: further dollar moves could destabilise insurers; US trade hawks could force revaluation; a May episode saw a 9% appreciation against the dollar. The CBC should gradually loosen its currency peg and set a long-term appreciation path (as Singapore has) while the government—gross debt ≈23% of GDP—supports worker retraining and phases reforms to limit rapid shocks. Managed, gradual revaluation would shift more consumption power to households and reduce systemic risk.