许多欧洲领导人依赖美国的安全保障，但一个与MAGA同调的白宫却支持那些威胁其政治生存的政党，使风险从对乌克兰的短期危机管理转向更长期的意识形态对抗。跨大西洋的“新右派”在《国家安全战略》中被明确化，该文件声称主流欧洲政府招致“文明抹除”，并决意通过从英国改革党到德国选择党（AfD）等盟友来“培育抵抗”。
这一叙事把2008、2015、2020和2022年的冲击串联起来——金融危机、移民危机、疫情以及俄入侵后生活成本飙升——并宣称反复危机压垮国家、持续削弱自由主义中间力量。它招募在地位与财富上感到相对损失的人群，把身份政治与边境驱逐、关税和反“深层政府”的话语捆绑，同时利用TikTok与Telegram等平台上碎片化的数字部落来“灌满信息空间”。
给主流阵营的应对之道是重建竞争性的叙事与面向工人阶层的联盟，例如丹麦把移民议题改写为捍卫福利国家，而荷兰的D66通过争取中间派与保守派，从第五位跃升至领跑位置。策略上也可把特朗普的跨国关联反用为武器——民调显示欧洲多国“大多数”认为其再次当选对本国不利——而作者过去一年的走访覆盖了十二个国家。
Many European leaders rely on U.S. security guarantees even as a MAGA-aligned White House backs parties that threaten their political survival, shifting the risk from short-term Ukraine management to a longer-term ideological contest. The transatlantic “new right” is signaled in the National Security Strategy, which alleges “civilisational erasure” and aims to “cultivate resistance” via allies from Reform UK to Germany’s AfD.
Its narrative strings together shocks in 2008, 2015, 2020, and 2022—financial crash, migration crisis, pandemic, and post-invasion cost-of-living surge—arguing that repeated crises overwhelmed the state and steadily weakened the liberal centre. It recruits those who felt relative losses in status and wealth, pairs identity politics with border expulsions, tariffs, and anti–“deep state” rhetoric, and exploits fragmented digital tribes on platforms such as TikTok and Telegram to “flood the zone.”
Proposed mainstream responses are to rebuild a competing narrative and working-class coalition, with Denmark reframing migration as welfare-state defense and the Netherlands’ D66 moving from fifth place to pole position by courting centrists and conservatives. Strategically, leaders can also weaponize Trump’s transnational ties—polling reports large majorities seeing his re-election as bad for their country—while the author’s yearlong reporting spans a dozen countries.
Source: It’s time Europe got to grips with the MAGA challenge, writes Mark Leonard
Subtitle: How Donald Trump can be used as a weapon against his ideological allies on the old continent
Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:00 上午