在十年低利率的推动下，私募信贷市场已从 2015 年的 5000 亿美元扩大到如今的超过 2 万亿美元。然而，利率上升已将债务成本推高至 2022 年前水平的两到三倍，随着并购和 IPO 等退出路径收窄，资本面临被套牢的境地。

由于债务基于激进的增长假设而承销，从 2015 年的 80 亿美元激增至 2025 年底的 5000 亿美元的软件行业尤为脆弱。由于这些轻资产公司在更高的融资成本和人工智能颠覆中苦苦挣扎，该领域的贷方可能面临回收率降至每美元 50 美分以下的风险。

虽然私募信贷不会带来类似于 2008 年银行引发的系统性风险，但管理不良贷款将消耗大量资源。这种新环境将扩大赢家和输家之间的差距，标志着向有条件流动性和纪律性承销的转变。

The private-credit market has expanded from $500 billion in 2015 to over $2 trillion today, fueled by a decade of low interest rates. However, rising interest rates have pushed debt costs to two or three times their pre-2022 levels, trapping capital as exit paths like mergers and IPOs narrow.

The software sector, which ballooned from $8 billion in 2015 to $500 billion by late 2025, is particularly vulnerable due to debt underwritten on aggressive growth assumptions. Lenders in this sector face potential recovery rates falling well below 50 cents on the dollar because these asset-light companies struggle under higher financing costs and AI disruptions.

While private credit does not pose systemic risks similar to the 2008 bank-led crisis, managing underperforming loans will consume significant resources. This new environment will widen the dispersion between winners and losers, marking a shift toward conditional liquidity and disciplined underwriting.

Source: The pain to come in private credit

Subtitle: It’s time to ditch assumptions built on cheap capital, stable growth and predictable exits, argues Hamza Lemssouguer

Dateline: June 4th 2026