美国社会保障信托基金的缴费人与受益人比例已从 1940 年的 150 比 1 以上降至如今的不足 3 比 1，预计该基金将在 2032 年底或 2033 年初枯竭。如果不予解决，福利将自动下降 23%，而目前每年 2090 亿美元（占 GDP 的 0.7%）的资金缺口将不得不通过借贷来填补。

拟议的政策修正案包括将工资税率从 12.4% 微调至 12.6%，并将高收入工人的退休年龄提高至 70 岁。然而，由于创纪录的立法两极分化和强烈的公众反对，其实施受到阻碍，调查中 71% 的美国人支持增加该项目的支出，而只有 5% 支持削减。

其他提议，例如借入 1.5 万亿美元并在 75 年内投资于股票，可能需要政府借入高达 25 万亿美元的资金。这一财政压力因 2025 年美国预算赤字达到 GDP 的近 7% 而加剧，显著高于其他发达经济体 2% 的平均水平。

America’s Social Security trust fund, which saw its worker-to-recipient ratio drop from over 150 to one in 1940 to less than three to one today, is projected to run dry by late 2032 or early 2033. If unremedied, benefits will automatically fall by 23%, and the current annual deficit of $209 billion (0.7% of GDP) must be covered by borrowing.

Proposed policy fixes include raising payroll taxes from 12.4% to 12.6% and increasing the retirement age to 70 for wealthier workers. However, implementation is hindered by record legislative polarization and strong public opposition, with 71% of surveyed Americans favoring increased spending on the program and only 5% supporting cuts.

Alternative ideas, such as borrowing $1.5 trillion to invest in stocks over 75 years, could require up to $25 trillion in government borrowing. This fiscal strain is compounded by the fact that the U.S. budget deficit reached nearly 7% of GDP in 2025, significantly higher than the 2% average of other advanced economies.

Source: America’s Social Security trust fund is disappearing

Subtitle: Legislators have just six years to fix things

Dateline: June 4th 2026