战争进入第四年后，日常运行的摩擦已被量化：莫斯科等城市的GPS欺骗可造成约50公里定位偏差，去年因无人机风险等因素出现超过500次机场关闭，而承担90%客运航班的空客和波音机队在制裁下出现800次故障、较前一年增至三倍以上。数字管控也在加深，Top10VPN记录到去年全国或地区性断网58次，平均持续25天。
宏观指标显示“韧性”但结构失衡加剧：战前对2022-2024年约2%年增速的预期未落空且略快，但2025年增长骤降至约0.6%，失业率仍仅2%。与此同时，去年新注册企业数降至14年最低、比2024年低20%，欠薪翻倍至22亿卢布；军队人力成本从2024年的3万亿卢布升至2025年超过4万亿（约占GDP的2%），其中近40%用于阵亡补偿，且约每日1000人的伤亡可能高于补充速度。
制度与人口趋势呈现长期压力：2010年代每年征收申请不超过1起，而开战后被征收企业已超过500家，检方一度宣称为国家“收回”2.4万亿卢布。司法方面有1,112起案件因被告签军约而中止或撤销，过去四年参战相关人员造成约1,000名平民死伤；同时生育率在2023年降至1.3（2006年以来最低），去年发放24万份外国人工作许可，2020至2024年焦虑和抑郁确诊上升21%，今年1月抗抑郁药处方同比再升18%，且约60%民众预计今年会比去年更难。
Four years into the war, frictions in daily life are now measurable: GPS spoofing in Moscow and other cities can shift location by about 50 km, fears of drones and related risks caused more than 500 airport closures last year, and sanctions-hit Airbus/Boeing fleets that carry 90% of passenger traffic logged 800 breakdowns, more than triple the previous year. Digital controls are tightening too, with Top10VPN counting 58 regional or national internet suspensions last year, averaging 25 days each.
Headline indicators still show resilience but deeper distortion: pre-war forecasts of about 2% annual growth for 2022-2024 were slightly exceeded, yet growth then slowed sharply to about 0.6% in 2025 while unemployment stayed at just 2%. At the same time, new business registrations fell to a 14-year low and were 20% below 2024, wage arrears doubled to 2.2bn roubles, and the army’s manpower bill rose from 3trn roubles in 2024 to over 4trn in 2025 (around 2% of GDP), with nearly 40% spent on death compensation while casualties near 1,000 a day may exceed recruitment.
Legal and demographic trends point to long-run strain: prosecutors filed no more than one expropriation case per year in the 2010s, but over 500 firms have been expropriated since the invasion, with officials claiming 2.4trn roubles “recovered” for the state. Courts suspended or dropped 1,112 criminal cases after defendants signed military contracts, war participants reportedly killed or injured around 1,000 people in four years, fertility fell to 1.3 in 2023 (the lowest since 2006), 240,000 foreign work permits were issued last year, diagnosed anxiety/depression rose 21% from 2020-2024, antidepressant prescriptions were up 18% year-on-year in January, and about 60% of Russians expect this year to be harder than last year.
Source: How four years of war have changed Russia
Subtitle: The fighting in Ukraine has reshaped everyday life
Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 07:51 上午 | Moscow and Yekaterinburg