根据美国地质调查局（US Geological Survey），美国 2025 年进口量达到 1.7 million metric tons，几乎是前一年的 2x。交易所核准的 Comex 库存自 2025 年初起持续攀升，截至 2026-02-06 达到 589,081 short tons（534,405 metric tons），较 1 year 前增加超过 5-fold，并创下 CME 数据回溯至 1989 年以来的最高水准。若纳入场外持有量，BMO Capital Markets 估计美国总囤积量约为 1,000,000 metric tons，大致相当于智利 Escondida 矿的年产量。
在美国以外供应被收紧、且从智利到印尼的矿山出现扰动之际，囤货助推铜价在 2026 年 1 月下旬于 LME 升至每公吨超过 $14,500 的历史新高；高盛（Goldman Sachs）警告价格已超越基本面，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）则称每吨高于 $11,000 到 $11,500 的水准几乎完全是投机所致。高价正在挤压中国加工商，且与伦敦、上海、纽约三地交易所库存升至 2003 年以来最高同时出现，显示在长期成长题材（再生能源、EV、AI data centers）之下，短期需求可能转弱。市场预期已从可能因释库导致的价格下挫，转向库存可能长期存在；这也受到政府提出的 $12,000,000,000「Project Vault」关键矿物储备计划强化。铜是美国关键清单中 1 of 60 种矿物之一；BMO 估计目前的 1,000,000 tons 约可覆盖美国需求 7 months，相较之下 1960s 初期约为 10 months。储存能力也在扩张：CME 在 2025 年新增 649,979 short tons 的美国仓储容量，使总容量在 7 states 略高于 1,100,000 short tons，且仍有更多申请待审（包括 2026 年 1 月针对 Cartersville, Georgia 的提案）。
The US has quietly accumulated its biggest copper stockpile in decades, pulling metal away from global markets and adding to price pressure. The build accelerated over the last 1 year as President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda (after returning to the White House) lifted US prices above the London benchmark for much of 2025, creating a lucrative New York premium that drew shipments from major trading houses. In July 2025, Trump’s tariffs unexpectedly excluded refined copper but imposed a 50% duty on semi-finished products (pipes, wires) and derivative products, briefly narrowing the arbitrage before he said the decision could be revisited in the 2nd half of 2026, reviving tariff fears and keeping US inflows strong.
US imports reached 1.7 million metric tons in 2025, almost 2x the prior year, according to the US Geological Survey. Exchange-approved Comex inventories rose relentlessly from early 2025 to 589,081 short tons (534,405 metric tons) as of 2026-02-06, a more than 5-fold increase from 1 year earlier and the highest level in CME data back to 1989. Including off-exchange holdings, BMO Capital Markets estimates the total US hoard at around 1,000,000 metric tons, roughly equivalent to the annual output of Chile’s Escondida mine.
By tightening supply outside the US alongside mine disruptions from Chile to Indonesia, stockpiling helped push copper to record prices above $14,500 per metric ton on the LME in late January 2026; Goldman Sachs warned prices have overshot fundamentals, and BNP Paribas said levels above $11,000 to $11,500 per ton are almost entirely speculative. High prices are straining Chinese fabricators and coincide with exchange stockpiles in London, Shanghai, and New York at their highest since 2003, signaling softer near-term demand despite longer-term growth themes (renewables, EVs, AI data centers). Expectations have shifted from a potential release-driven price slump to a persistent stockpile, reinforced by the administration’s proposed $12,000,000,000 “Project Vault” critical-minerals reserve; copper is 1 of 60 minerals on the US critical list, and BMO estimates today’s 1,000,000 tons covers about 7 months of US demand versus about 10 months in the early 1960s. Storage is expanding: CME added 649,979 short tons of US warehousing capacity in 2025, bringing total capacity to a little over 1,100,000 short tons across 7 states, with further applications pending (including a January 2026 proposal for Cartersville, Georgia).