2023年，中国新能源汽车仅占全国130万亿元人民币国内生产总值（GDP）的1.44万亿元（即1.1%），而与房地产相关的需求仍超过16%。包含电动汽车、电池和可再生能源的“新三样”行业及相关投资在2023年仅占GDP的3.8%，不过预计到2025年这一比例将升至6.3%。

高盛对高科技制造业更广泛的衡量标准显示其占GDP的约8%，这仍然比房地产小且劳动密集度较低，每万亿元人民币仅创造280万个就业岗位，而房地产可创造370万个。然而，由于高科技制造业正快速增长，预计到明年，其对经济增长的贡献将超过房地产带来的降幅。

在中国国家统计局对“新三样”更广泛的定义下（包括新业态和新模式），这些新兴行业占GDP的18%。这种更广泛的范畴表明，新经济现在已经足够庞大，可以完全抵消房地产下行带来的拖累。

In 2023, China's new-energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for only 1.44 trillion yuan, or 1.1% of the country's 130 trillion yuan GDP, while property-related demand still exceeded 16%. The "new three" sectors (EVs, batteries, and renewable energy) along with related investments represented only 3.8% of GDP in 2023, though this share is projected to rise to 6.3% by 2025.

A broader measure of high-tech manufacturing by Goldman Sachs accounts for about 8% of GDP, which remains smaller and less labor-intensive than property, generating only 2.8 million jobs per trillion yuan compared to property's 3.7 million. However, because high-tech manufacturing is growing rapidly, it is expected to add more to economic growth than property subtracts by next year.

Under the National Bureau of Statistics' broader definition of the "new three," which includes new formats and models, these emerging sectors represent 18% of GDP. This wider scope suggests that the new economy is now large enough to fully counterbalance the drag from the real estate downturn.

Source: How big are China’s emerging industries?

Subtitle: Probably not big enough to offset the drag from the old

Dateline: 6月 11, 2026 04:20 上午 | Hong Kong